Macro Oils short-term outlook: March 2021 Report

Commodity Market Report 08 March 2021

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Report summary

On 4 March, OPEC+ decided to take a cautious approach to demand recovery by leaving its production restraint for April, including the Saudi extra 1 million b/d cut. The only exception were increases for Russia and Kazakhstan. After the OPEC+ announcement, Brent climbed to just under $70 per barrel. The 7 March missile attack on Saudi Arabia’s oil facilities, while not harming facilities, highlights the upward price risk this spring and briefly lifted Brent to above $70. Highlights of our Macro Oils short-term outlook include: • How did the Texas freeze impact Q1 2021 supply and demand? • Revised outlook for Brent in 2021 and 2022 • Demand growth set to accelerate as vaccination continues • OECD crude stocks to return to pre-Covid-19 levels in H2 2021

Global supply: US deep freeze and OPEC rollover impacts H1 2021 production
- OPEC+ rolls over March cuts; exception of further small rise in output for Russia and Kazakhstan
- Non-OPEC supply: sweeping US winter storms, and a mixed forecast for the North Sea
- US Lower 48: winter storm impact was severe but short-lived
- Impact of severe winter storm
- Operator guidance
- OPEC: minor revisions as OPEC+ rolls over production cuts
Global demand : Texas freeze, Covid-19 lingering restrictions weigh on Q1 2021
- Global liquids demand this year: Q1 2021 struggles, Q4 2021 demand raised
- Q1 2021:
- 2021:
- Asia-Pacific:
- Americas:
- Europe:
- Russia/The Caspian:
- 2022: Demand exceeds pre-crisis levels in H2 2022
- Risks to the outlook