Commodity market report

Macro oils short-term outlook: May 2017 oil price forecast

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Report summary

Barring supply disruptions from Venezuela or Libya, and assuming no military strike on North Korea, our Brent price forecast is $55 for 2017, and $50 for 2018. This view is predicated on an extension of OPEC's production cut agreement through H2 2017, with no extension into 2018. An extension of the agreement through H2 2017 is necessary to drive global stock draws and help rebalance the market. Without an extension, prices will drop. Our latest supply outlook compounds weak fundamentals with stronger supply coming in from the US, Norway, Kazakhstan, and Iraq. Eagle Ford is responsible for the upward revision to the US, with rig activity and permits ramping up. On the demand side, historic revisions lift the base of demand. But we also see stronger demand in 2018 due to higher petrochemical feedstock, and less of a drag from Europe. However, oil demand in 2017 remains a key risk as the slowdown in China, India and US earlier this year was not so temporary in India and the US after all.

What's included

This report contains

Table of contents

    • Non-OPEC: Eagle Ford, Kashagan, and Norway drive upward revisions
    • OPEC: continued adherence and production cut extension drive status quo
    • The supply wildcards: Venezuela and Libya

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  • Executive summary: Image 1

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