Barring supply disruptions from Venezuela or Libya and assuming no military strike on North Korea our Brent price forecast is $55 for 2017 and $50 for 2018. This view is predicated on an extension of OPEC's production cut agreement through H2 2017 with no extension into 2018. An extension of the agreement through H2 2017 is necessary to drive global stock draws and help rebalance the market. Without an extension prices will drop. Our latest supply outlook compounds weak fundamentals with stronger supply coming in from the US Norway Kazakhstan and Iraq. Eagle Ford is responsible for the upward revision to the US with rig activity and permits ramping up. On the demand side historic revisions lift the base of demand. But we also see stronger demand in 2018 due to higher petrochemical feedstock and less of a drag from Europe. However oil demand in 2017 remains a key risk as the slowdown in China India and US earlier this year was not so temporary in India and the US after all.