Commodity Market Report
Macro Oils short-term outlook May 2019: supply constraints, OPEC spare capacity and easing economic concerns
Report summary
The oil market is the scene of several geopolitical stand offs – US versus Iran, US versus President Maduro in Venezuela, and a potential civil war in Libya. At the same time, economic indicators have been upbeat in recent weeks, helping to allay the economic concerns and supporting oil demand growth. Escalating US sanctions against Iran and Venezuela, and Saudi Arabia's output cuts have sharply slowed global supply growth.
Table of contents
- Global supply: rising risks for OPEC supply, little change to non-OPEC outlook
- Non-OPEC supply
- US Lower 48
- OPEC supply
- Iran: crude oil production falls to 2.35 million b/d as US ends sanctions waivers
- Venezuela: escalating tensions as Juan Guaidó challenges Nicolás Maduro
- Libya: clashes continue as Libyan National Army (LNA) continues push for Tripoli
- Global demand: As economic concerns ease, growth in demand holds up
- Although losing steam, global economy averts a major slowdown
- Asian demand: China's pace moderates while India's momentum continues
- US demand growth to regain momentum; Europe steadies
- Middle East demand supported by oil in power
- Growth in Latin American demand delayed to 2020
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