Macro oils short-term outlook: May 2022
Report summary
Table of contents
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Global supply: base case outlook for Russia supply again lowered substantially
- Russia: new EU sanctions under discussion as production declines sharply in April
- Non-OPEC supply: downgrades to Russia, Norway and GoM offset upgrades to China and Kazakhstan
- US Lower 48: drilling activity remains strong, but completions slow
- OPEC: Libya oil blockade outages slow OPEC growth in Q2
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Global demand: Global oil demand struggles in 2022 under the weight of China lockdowns and inflation pressures
- 2022: China restrictions and squeezed petrochemical margins hit gasoline and naphtha demand as recovery retracts in H1 2022
- 2023: Global demand to approach 102 million b/d as light ends demand weakness extends into next year
- Key changes/developments in regional outlooks
- Asia Pacific
- North America
- Europe
- Middle East
- Risks to the outlook
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