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Commodity Market Report

Macro oils short-term outlook: May 2022

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05 May 2022

Macro oils short-term outlook: May 2022

Report summary

We are continuing to emphasize the risk to oil production in Russia under the duress of unprecedented sanctions. The EU is near a decision to ban imports of oil from Russia by end-2022. The demand recovery is facing stagnation in Q2 2022 amid elevated prices and China’s Covid-19 restrictions and risks are skewed to the downside for the remainder of our outlook. In this Monthly Update, our forecast for Russia oil supply has been revised downward to reflect the growing logistical challenges and its sharp decline in domestic refining runs. Oil exports from Russia have remained steady into early May but we expect pressure on these could escalate. Read our latest short-term update for more on the evolving global oil market: • What do China’s Covid lockdowns mean for demand? • Impact on trade from an EU ban on Russia oil imports • How close are we to our Recession Case Scenario? • Finally, growth for sluggish US Lower 48 supply

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    Macro Oils Short Term Outlook May 2022 Slidepack.pdf

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