Macro oils short-term outlook: November 2017 oil price forecast
Brent broke through $60 a barrel at the end of October. Several factors have driven the recent price rally, the most important being continued evidence of a fundamental tightening of supply and demand, with continued declines in oil storage. Recent statements by Saudi Arabia, Russia, and OPEC ministers in support of extending the current production cut agreement beyond March 2018 have also buoyed prices. As the market tightens, geopolitical risk is playing a more important role in price determination. Kurdistan's vote for independence triggered events in Northern Iraq which disrupted two key fields. Venezuela's debt situation has also drawn market attention. Given the wave of US tight oil supply forecast to hit the market next year, we continue to expect downward pressure on price in the first half of 2018. Our forecast of $53 a barrel for 2017 and $52 a barrel for 2018 remains unchanged. A more balanced market into 2019 supports a modest improvement to $55 per barrel.