Commodity market report

Macro oils short-term outlook: October 2017 oil price forecast

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Report summary

This contributed to Brent averaging $57/ bbl in September a few dollars higher than our forecast. However geopolitical tension has eased into October and the US rig count is nudging higher once again. We forecast Brent to average just under $53/ bbl this year and $52/ bbl next year. Until last week the US Lower 48 horizontal oil rig count declined for seven straight weeks OECD stocks continue to fall and an independence movement in Kurdistan led to the building of Turkish and Iranian troops on their borders with Kurdistan with the possibility albeit slim that Turkey would cut off a key export pipeline from Northern Iraq. Brent has been supported over the past month or so by continued signs of market rebalancing heightened geopolitical tension and perception that US tight oil supply growth will not be as strong as some had feared or hoped.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Macro oils short term outlook October 2017 Executive Summary.pdf

    PDF 272.69 KB

  • Document

    Macro oils short term outlook October 2017 slidepack.pdf

    PDF 6.51 MB

  • Document

    Macro oils short term outlook October 2017 price outlook.xls

    XLS 217.00 KB

  • Document

    Macro oils short term outlook October 2017 supply demand.xls

    XLS 992.00 KB

  • Document

    Macro oils short term outlook October 2017 US dollar.xls

    XLS 1.44 MB

  • Document

    Macro oils short term outlook October 2017 slide charts.xls

    XLS 243.00 KB

  • Document

    Macro oils short-term outlook: October 2017 oil price forecast

    ZIP 7.26 MB

Table of contents

    • 2018 supply growth remains robust at 1.8 million b/d
    • US L48: rig count reverts to growth
    • Political tensions rise as Kurdistan votes for independence
    • OPEC and non-OPEC producers September meeting sends clear signals
    • Global demand: momentum picks up, with growth of 1.4 million b/d projected for 2018

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