Commodity Market Report
Macro Oils short-term outlook: OPEC postpones decision, Venezuela supply risk, demand holds up
Report summary
Prices are nudging up as the Venezuelan crisis continues longer than many expected. The US is no longer speaking of a movement of its troops into Venezuela, while Russia and China have sent some soldiers into the beleaguered country. For now President Maduro remains in office with no clear signs of a quick resolution of the standoff. Our latest assessment of OPEC production shows intentional supply reductions by the Gulf nations to balance the market are outpaced by sanctions-related losses from Iran and Venezuela. With oil prices edging up toward $70 per barrel for Brent, oil market considerations could drive the US decision on whether or not to renew the waivers.
Table of contents
- Global supply: non-OPEC strength countered by OPEC uncertainty
- Non-OPEC supply: upward revisions add to overall strength of supply
- US Lower 48: anticipated slowdown in Q1 2019, but increasing completion activity in H2 2019
- Bakken and Rockies production rises despite pipeline constraints and contentious regulatory environment in Colorado
- OPEC geopolitical woes lead to new 2019 lows
- Venezuela: plunged into darkness
- Libya: El Sharara production ramps up
- Iran: oil exports continue to fall
- Global demand: steadying growth following slow start to 2019
- Mounting concerns as global economy slowly loses steam
- Plummeting demand in Venezuela as gasoline and diesel shortages occur
- Iranian demand to remain weak, but fuel oil provides an upside
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