Macro Oils Short-Term Oil Price Forecast: OPEC steps up Report

Commodity Market Report 06 March 2019

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Why buy this report?

Get short term oil price forecasts and analysis of the factors that will influence macro oil price in the short term
Get supply, demand and market analysis from our global team of experts, and understand the risks to our current outlook, including:
1. Venezuela: how long will sanctions remain in place?
2. China: how will an expected slowdown in Chinese growth affect oil demand?
3. Globally: What about the impact of IMO?

Report summary

With little change to our supply outlook and high levels of political uncertainty, we have made minimal changes to our macro oil price outlook. The outcome to the stand off in Venezuela remains unclear amid emerging signs of a potential prolonged resolution as the bite of sanctions takes effect. Even as sanctions reduce Venezuela and Iran’s production, other producers in OPEC have sharpened their production restraint to cut into potential oversupply for 2019.

Steady growth in global demand
Despite upward revision to China demand, trend of slowing growth maintained
While demand risks are mainly to the downside, could the power sector provide some upside?
Global supply:
Non-OPEC supply: growth persists above two million b/d in 2019 and 2020
US Lower 48: marginal upward revisions as operators put emphasis on completion in H2 2019
OPEC: risk of potential disruption from geopolitical risk and sanctions
Venezuela: pressure on Maduro ratchets up
Libya: El Sharara production to resume as NOC lift force majeure
Nigeria: Buhari wins a second presidential term