Macro Oils short-term outlook: September 2021 Report

Commodity Market Report 08 September 2021

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Report summary

The 1 September 2021 OPEC+ meeting results were not a surprise to the market, or to our short-term analysis. We continue to factor in a rise in production from OPEC+ through much of 2022. Global demand remains on its recovery path in North America and Europe while Asia-Pacific extends Covid-19 restrictions. Key topics include: • Revisions to non-OPEC supply including impact of Hurricane Ida • How are major upstream project FIDs faring in 2021? • Asia-Pacific demand takes different trend from US and EU • OPEC+ agreement and expected demand recovery

Global supply: gradual lifting of OPEC+ production restraint still on track
- Non-OPEC: Hurricane Ida continues to disrupt oil production in US GoM
- US Lower 48: production holds steady as budgets remained unchanged
- Hurricane Ida disrupts Gulf of Mexico production
- OPEC: minimal changes as OPEC+ group stick to July agreement
Global demand: Asia-Pacific lags the North America/Europe-led demand recovery
- 2021: Transport fuel demand bears the brunt of the H2 2021 Asia-Pacific recovery slowdown
- Asia-Pacific
- Europe
- Americas
- Middle East
- Africa
- 2022: Global demand exceeds pre-pandemic levels in H2 2022
- Risks to the outlook