Commodity Market Report
Macro oils short-term outlook: September 2024
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Report summary
The oil market weakened in August and early September due largely to a continued focus on potential weak demand in China. With prices falling into the low to mid $70s/bbl area for Dated Brent, on 5 September 2024 OPEC+ agreed to delay the easing in production cuts to 1 December 2024. In view of the recent weakness in prices, we have adjusted our base case in this monthly update to assume that OPEC+ delays the start of easing production cuts until Q2 2025, when output will begin returning to the market and continue to do so through the end of 2025.
Table of contents
- 2025-2026
- Alternative Case for OPEC+
- Political Risk
-
Global supply: non-OPEC supply remains buoyant as attention turns to a change in OPEC+ policy
- Non-OPEC supply: outlook driven by upgrades to US NGLs and Lower 48
- US Lower 48 oil production will grow annually at 3% through 2025
- Consolidation continues beyond the Permian to boost efficiency and bring synergies
- Fewer rigs doesn’t mean less production, as operators boost output through efficiency
- OPEC: we assume OPEC+ delay unwinding of cuts until Q2 2025
- Global demand: Despite sluggish global manufacturing, petrochemical growth strengthens this year
- Liquids demand by key markets
- China
- 4 more item(s)...
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