Commodity Market Report

Macro Oils short-term outlook: Venezuela decline, Permian takeaway crunch, and US/Iran uncertainty

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Report summary

Strength in US supply is contending with geopolitical risk to set the direction of oil prices. The steep gains in US oil production offsets some of the market focus on risks to Venezuela's supply and sanctions against Iran. Swift changes to top US foreign policy personnel in March escalated fears of a return to US oil sanctions against Iran, and this has further pressured oil prices to the upside. We have upgraded our oil price outlook for both 2018 and 2019. On the demand side, while we project robust global growth of 1.7 million b/d this year, we are concerned about the threat of an escalating trade war between the US and China. Read this monthly to understand: The extent of our downgrade to Venezuela's oil production outlook, and the reasons for it.  How uncertainty surrounding US policy toward Iran will impact the oil market  Why Permian basis differentials have blown out; takeaway capacity crunch in sight?  Why oil demand reached almost 2 million b/d in Q1 2018. Will it continue? 

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Macro Oils short-term outlook: Venezuela decline, Permian takeaway crunch, and US/Iran uncertainty

    ZIP 1.73 MB

  • Document

    Macro oils short-term outlook April 2018 slidepack.pdf

    PDF 1.03 MB

  • Document

    Macro oils short term outlook April 2018 price outlook.xls

    XLS 212.00 KB

  • Document

    Macro oils short term outlook April 2018 supply demand.xls

    XLS 1.02 MB

  • Document

    Macro oils short term outlook April 2018 slide chart.xls

    XLS 419.00 KB

  • Document

    Macro Oils short-term outlook: Venezuela decline, Permian takeaway crunch, and US/Iran uncertainty

    PDF 269.15 KB

Table of contents

    • Global supply growth downgraded as Venezuela production declines accelerate; wider geopolitical risk increases
    • Geopolitical risk premium increases as Trump shakes-up the White House
    • Impact of renewed US sanctions on Iran
    • Venezuela: switch to low case supply outlook as production declines accelerate
    • Could takeaway constraints in the Permian spoil the party?
    • Surging oil demand in the first quarter set to last?

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