Commodity Market Report

North America crude markets long-term outlook H1 2017

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13 July 2017

North America crude markets long-term outlook H1 2017

Report summary

Increasing US and Canadian production will cap oil prices until 2020 before prices move up longer term. The surge in tight oil has caused US exports to grow, and is forecast to widen the Brent-WTI differential as the marginal barrel will be sent to lower value configurations overseas. Several midstream investments are scheduled to come online over the next few years. Recent approvals in Canada and the United States have reduced uncertainty in various projects, yet opposition still poses a risk to timing. However, rail economics still linger in West Canada and are slated to return in the Bakken region (mid 2020s). The ramp up in production and exports will impose crude slate shifts on various US regions, with both the US East and West Coast to rely more on imports and the Gulf Coast to intake a large portion of Canadian heavy and domestically produced light barrels. Mexican refiners are forecast to import more US light crude, as domestic production will decline going forward.

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