Commodity market report

North America crude markets short-term outlook December 2016

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Report summary

At its 30 November 2016 meeting OPEC agreed to cut its production for H1 2017. In this North America Crude Markets Monthly Update we assess adherence to the deal and it s impact on US oil supply. This month the Canadian government provided more clarity on the outlook for oil sands pipelines as it approved the Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) and Line 3 Replacement pipelines and sidelined the Northern Gateway project. These announcements were in line with our base case assumptions. We are looking forward to US stock build and increased US oil exports as US refinery crude runs slows for seasonal maintenance in the spring of 2017. The high cost of RINs has challenged some refiner s economics and dampened crude runs. We expect to see more of this early next year.

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