North America Crude Markets short-term outlook: Feb 2021 Report

Commodity Market Report 05 February 2021

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Report summary

WTI prices are setting new 52-week highs, and the forward curve has shifted into full backwardation. This comes on the heels of continued vaccine rollout and demand recovery optimism as well as supportive OPEC+ policy. As Lower 48 rigs continue a slow grinding rebound, questions have emerged about impacts from future Biden administration policies. In this update, we explore: • L48 production outlook within context of recent Biden administration policy actions • Latest court ruling for Dakota Access pipeline • Permian pipeline cash costs and the floor for the Midland-Houston differential • Provide context to the first South Texas Gateway terminal VLCC loading

US Lower 48: New federal policies pose no threat to short-term supply
- Drilling outlook
- Capex expectations
- Policy implications
DAPL: Appeals court ruling provides little clarity for future of system operations
Midland-Houston differentials riding the floor
Corpus Christi export terminal South Texas Gateway loads first VLCC light-load cargo