North America Crude Markets short-term outlook: March 2023

A common theme has arisen from the recent wave of earnings calls over the past few weeks, as oil majors and independent refiners alike have warned of a heavy US maintenance period to start the year. For many refiners, H1 2023 is a chance to catch-up on much needed regular maintenance as numerous refiners deferred larger maintenance projects in recent years amidst the pandemic and record margins. Other topics addressed in this report include: • Update on drivers behind widening WTI discounts to North Sea Dated • A progress update on Exxon’s Beaumont refinery expansion • A refresh on our outlook for Bakken supply vs. takeaway capacity • US crude inventories post largest relative builds to start the year since 2015