Extraordinarily high US crude runs in April helped to tighten the Brent WTI differential and to draw down US crude oil stocks. Crude runs this high are normally only seen in the peak of summer. Sustained crude runs at these levels would help to rebalance US crude markets and accelerate the summer drawdown of US crude stocks but are these high crude runs sustainable. The Dakota Access pipeline set to begin shipments to Patoka and Nederland mid May will put a damper on already waning crude by rail shipments. Additionally increased light crude supply to Nederland could leave the region oversupplied until the Bayou Bridge pipeline is completed in late 2017. Barring supply disruptions from Venezuela or Libya and assuming no military strike on North Korea our Brent price forecast remains broadly unchanged.