Commodity market report

North America crude markets short-term outlook October 2016

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Report summary

Pipelines have continued to dominate headlines as evidenced by the recent sabotage of five Canadian pipes carrying 2.8 million b/d of crude oil. The disruptions were in solidarity to against a new Bakken pipeline sets a new high watermark in pipeline activism. This month we assess which oil plays are located near Native American reservations and could be subject to new laws when building crude oil pipelines. We expect US crude oil stocks to rise as refineries enter fall maintenance. This build could support an uptick in US oil exports. In recent months the East Coast has eclipsed the Gulf Coast as the largest departure point for US oil exports. The report outlines some export routes. The informal OPEC gathering in Algiers has helped support oil prices. The fundamentals analysis continues to show an implied global oil stock draw in Q4 2016. On that basis we forecast a rise in prices. Higher prices suggest an accelerated drawdown of DUCs. This report includes some analysis on DUCs.

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