Commodity Market Report

Tsunami of US crude oil exports: North America crude markets long-term outlook H2 2016

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01 December 2016

Tsunami of US crude oil exports: North America crude markets long-term outlook H2 2016

Report summary

As oil prices recover we forecast strong growth of US and Canadian oil supply. Much of this increase will be exported to other countries. For the US, this could exert a widening impact on Brent-WTI as US light sweet crude has to travel to more distant refinery centres and compete with other crude grades. Crude flows within the region will continue to be influenced by pipeline development and government policy. Although some major pipeline proposals were recently approved by the Canadian government, substantial opposition remains. The evolving supply, demand and takeaway capacity will continue to impact the regional crude price differentials. However, in general over the long-term, we expect North American discounts to be smaller than the large discounts experienced in the early 2010s.  

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