China power and renewable markets long-term outlook H1 2016
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Report summary
China is facing significant overcapacity in the power generation sector just as demand growth slows. Combined with weaker industrial demand, environmental challenges, the rollout of reforms and carbon mitigation commitment are all reshaping China's power sector and redefining its fuel mix. How will China's power demand and supply mix adapt to these key drivers? What impact will the focus on clean energy from nuclear and renewables have on coal and gas demand? And what are the key risks facing the sector? In this report we address these questions through detailed analysis of China's power market and policies.
What's included
This report contains
Table of contents
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Executive summary
- The pace of China's power demand growth is slowing
- China's coal-fired fleet is getting greener, but overbuild set to deepen on the back of weaker demand
- Power sector reform aimed at boosting manufacturing competitiveness
- More policies to support renewables but curtailments set to remain
- Power flows into central and coastal markets to fall short of expectation
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Key data tables
- China power market balance
- Key facts and changes
- Economic outlook
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Policy and regulation
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Environmental and energy policies
- Market reform
- Direct power sales
- Bidding-based market transaction
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Market structure
- Regional grids
- Generation
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Environmental and energy policies
- Demand
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Supply
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Coal
- Gas
- Hydro: run-of-river and reservoir
- Hydro: pumped storage
- Nuclear
- Renewables: wind
- Curtailment to renewable generation
- Total power generation
- Reserve margin
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Coal
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Infrastructure
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Power Infrastructure
- Power transmission
- Power flows
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Power Infrastructure
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Prices
- On-grid tariffs
- Risks and uncertainties
Tables and charts
This report includes 35 images and tables including:
Tables
- Economic Indicators
- China power available capacity
- Key facts in power market regulation
- Key changes to power analysis from H1 2016 publication
- Executive summary: Table 2
- China gas demand
Images
- Forecast power demand vs. GDP
- Forecast power demand vs. elasticity
- Forecast power demand by region
- Historical power consumption by region
- Historical power consumption by sector
- Historical monthly power demand by region
- 2015 installed capacity by region
- 2015 installed capacity by fuel
- China key power demand uncertainties
- China key power supply uncertainties
- Pollutant discharge standards for coal-fired plants
- Installed capacity by fuel 2015-2035
- Installed capacity by region 2015-2035
- Solar capacity by region
- Solar capacity by technology
- Power generation by fuel
- Power generation by region
- Installed capacity grid reserve margin
- De-rated grid reserve margin with transmissions
- Incremental capacity by fuel
- Power plant investment by fuel
- Historical on-grid tariff by fuel
- Historical on-grid tariff by region
- Major players in China's power generation market 2014 (MW)
- The Big Five Gencos' capacity by fuel type in 2014
- Gas demand in power by region
- China inter-regional key power transmission infrastructure by 2020
- Infrastructure: Image 2
- Infrastructure: Image 3
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