Commodity market report
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30 Pages

China power and renewable markets long-term outlook H1 2016

China power and renewable markets long-term outlook H1 2016

Report summary

China is facing significant overcapacity in the power generation sector just as demand growth slows. Combined with weaker industrial demand, environmental challenges, the rollout of reforms and carbon mitigation commitment are all reshaping China's power sector and redefining its fuel mix. How will China's power demand and supply mix adapt to these key drivers? What impact will the focus on clean energy from nuclear and renewables have on coal and gas demand? And what are the key risks facing the sector? In this report we address these questions through detailed analysis of China's power market and policies.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • China power and renewable markets long-term outlook H1 2016 PDF - 8.83 MB 30 Pages, 6 Tables, 29 Figures
  • China Power Data.xls XLS - 728.50 KB


The power sector is rapidly transitioning to a cleaner generation mix supported by technological and regulatory changes. Regional markets and structures are adjusting to these new realities with implications on fuel demand, commodity pricing and asset values.

This Power Markets Long Term Outlook report provides a detailed analysis of supply, demand and price fundamentals, as well as the regulatory and market issues affecting regional power markets.

Use this report to examine key issues driving regulatory and economic trends and identify future growth opportunities in regional power markets.

Wood Mackenzie's detailed analysis and reliable market forecasts give you a strong foundation for your investment decisions and corporate planning. Our experienced power research analysts use high-quality proprietary gas, coal and oil markets research to help you unlock power market fundamentals and identify future growth opportunities.

  • Executive summary
    • The pace of China's power demand growth is slowing
    • China's coal-fired fleet is getting greener, but overbuild set to deepen on the back of weaker demand
    • Power sector reform aimed at boosting manufacturing competitiveness
    • More policies to support renewables but curtailments set to remain
    • Power flows into central and coastal markets to fall short of expectation
    • Key data tables
      • China power market balance
    • Key facts and changes
  • Economic outlook
  • Policy and regulation
    • Environmental and energy policies
      • Market reform
    • Direct power sales
    • Bidding-based market transaction
    • Market structure
      • Regional grids
      • Generation
  • Demand
  • Supply
    • Coal
      • Gas
    • Hydro: run-of-river and reservoir
    • Hydro: pumped storage
    • Nuclear
    • Renewables: wind
    • Curtailment to renewable generation
    • Total power generation
    • Reserve margin
  • Infrastructure
    • Power Infrastructure
      • Power transmission
      • Power flows
  • Prices
    • On-grid tariffs
  • Risks and uncertainties

In this report there are 35 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • China power available capacity
    • Executive summary: Table 2
    • China gas demand
    • Key facts in power market regulation
    • Key changes to power analysis from H1 2016 publication
  • Economic outlook
    • Economic Indicators
  • Policy and regulation
    • Pollutant discharge standards for coal-fired plants
    • Major players in China's power generation market 2014 (MW)
    • The Big Five Gencos' capacity by fuel type in 2014
  • Demand
    • Forecast power demand vs. GDP
    • Forecast power demand vs. elasticity
    • Forecast power demand by region
    • Historical power consumption by region
    • Historical power consumption by sector
    • Historical monthly power demand by region
  • Supply
    • 2015 installed capacity by region
    • 2015 installed capacity by fuel
    • Installed capacity by fuel 2015-2035
    • Installed capacity by region 2015-2035
    • Gas demand in power by region
    • Solar capacity by region
    • Solar capacity by technology
    • Power generation by fuel
    • Power generation by region
    • Installed capacity grid reserve margin
    • De-rated grid reserve margin with transmissions
    • Incremental capacity by fuel
    • Power plant investment by fuel
  • Infrastructure
    • China inter-regional key power transmission infrastructure by 2020
    • Infrastructure: Image 2
    • Infrastructure: Image 3
  • Prices
    • Historical on-grid tariff by fuel
    • Historical on-grid tariff by region
  • Risks and uncertainties
    • China key power demand uncertainties
    • China key power supply uncertainties
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