Commodity Market Report

China power and renewable markets long-term outlook H1 2016

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27 July 2016

China power and renewable markets long-term outlook H1 2016

Report summary

China is facing significant overcapacity in the power generation sector just as demand growth slows. Combined with weaker industrial demand, environmental challenges, the rollout of reforms and carbon mitigation commitment are all reshaping China's power sector and redefining its fuel mix. How will China's power demand and supply mix adapt to these key drivers? What impact will the focus on clean energy from nuclear and renewables have on coal and gas demand? And what are the key risks facing the sector? In this report we address these questions through detailed analysis of China's power market and policies.

Table of contents

    • The pace of China's power demand growth is slowing
    • China's coal-fired fleet is getting greener, but overbuild set to deepen on the back of weaker demand
    • Power sector reform aimed at boosting manufacturing competitiveness
    • More policies to support renewables but curtailments set to remain
    • Power flows into central and coastal markets to fall short of expectation
    • Key data tables
      • China power market balance
    • Key facts and changes
  • Economic outlook
    • Environmental and energy policies
      • Market reform
    • Direct power sales
    • Bidding-based market transaction
    • Market structure
      • Regional grids
      • Generation
  • Demand
    • Coal
      • Gas
    • Hydro: run-of-river and reservoir
    • Hydro: pumped storage
    • Nuclear
    • Renewables: wind
    • Curtailment to renewable generation
    • Total power generation
    • Reserve margin
    • Power Infrastructure
      • Power transmission
      • Power flows
    • On-grid tariffs
  • Risks and uncertainties

Tables and charts

This report includes 35 images and tables including:

  • Economic Indicators
  • Forecast power demand vs. GDP
  • Forecast power demand vs. elasticity
  • Forecast power demand by region
  • Historical power consumption by region
  • Historical power consumption by sector
  • Historical monthly power demand by region
  • 2015 installed capacity by region
  • 2015 installed capacity by fuel
  • China key power demand uncertainties
  • China key power supply uncertainties
  • China power available capacity
  • Key facts in power market regulation
  • Key changes to power analysis from H1 2016 publication
  • Pollutant discharge standards for coal-fired plants
  • Installed capacity by fuel 2015-2035
  • Installed capacity by region 2015-2035
  • Solar capacity by region
  • Solar capacity by technology
  • Power generation by fuel
  • Power generation by region
  • Installed capacity grid reserve margin
  • De-rated grid reserve margin with transmissions
  • Incremental capacity by fuel
  • Power plant investment by fuel
  • Historical on-grid tariff by fuel
  • Historical on-grid tariff by region
  • Executive summary: Table 2
  • China gas demand
  • Major players in China's power generation market 2014 (MW)
  • The Big Five Gencos' capacity by fuel type in 2014
  • Gas demand in power by region
  • China inter-regional key power transmission infrastructure by 2020
  • Infrastructure: Image 2
  • Infrastructure: Image 3

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    China Power Data.xls

    XLS 728.50 KB

  • Document

    China power and renewable markets long-term outlook H1 2016

    PDF 8.83 MB

  • Document

    China power and renewable markets long-term outlook H1 2016

    ZIP 8.99 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 108.33 KB

  • Document

    Economic outlook

    PDF 60.41 KB

  • Document

    Policy and regulation

    PDF 123.52 KB

  • Document


    PDF 112.73 KB

  • Document


    PDF 181.26 KB

  • Document


    PDF 370.53 KB

  • Document


    PDF 93.94 KB

  • Document

    Risks and uncertainties

    PDF 8.17 MB

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