We have revised upward our long-term China power demand forecast. There are two reasons for the change. Firstly, the government increased its power demand numbers for 2015. Secondly, stimulus around infrastructure construction pulled up heavy industrial output, which led to stronger power demand in 2016 and 2017. But these short-term gains are at the cost of long-term pains in which growth potential is overdrawn. The downtrend in the longer term will become more evident with the accelerating transition towards services in the economy.
We continue to see China's environmental policies reshaping its energy supply options. Excess coal-fired capacity will be eased, but low utilisation will follow once these projects are completed. Gas power is increasingly favoured as a way to combat air pollution and smooth out intermittent renewable output. Curtailments to wind and solar generation will remain in the near term with waves of projects coming onstream.
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China power and renewable markets long-term outlook H1 2017 PDF - 1014.89 KB 34 Pages, 7 Tables, 32 Figures
China Power Data.xlsx XLSX - 458.63 KB
The Aurora power model for China.pdf PDF - 1.36 MB
The power sector is rapidly transitioning to a cleaner generation mix supported by technological and regulatory changes. Regional markets and structures are adjusting to these new realities with implications on fuel demand, commodity pricing and asset values.
This Power Markets Long Term Outlook report provides a detailed analysis of supply, demand and price fundamentals, as well as the regulatory and market issues affecting regional power markets.
Use this report to examine key issues driving regulatory and economic trends and identify future growth opportunities in regional power markets.
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Commodity market report | Jul 2017
China power and renewable markets long-term outlook H1 2017
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