Commodity market report
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34 Pages

China power and renewable markets long-term outlook H1 2017

China power and renewable markets long-term outlook H1 2017

Report summary

We have revised upward our long-term China power demand forecast. There are two reasons for the change. Firstly, the government increased its power demand numbers for 2015. Secondly, stimulus around infrastructure construction pulled up heavy industrial output, which led to stronger power demand in 2016 and 2017. But these short-term gains are at the cost of long-term pains in which growth potential is overdrawn. The downtrend in the longer term will become more evident with the accelerating transition towards services in the economy.

We continue to see China's environmental policies reshaping its energy supply options. Excess coal-fired capacity will be eased, but low utilisation will follow once these projects are completed. Gas power is increasingly favoured as a way to combat air pollution and smooth out intermittent renewable output. Curtailments to wind and solar generation will remain in the near term with waves of projects coming onstream.

What's included?

This report includes 3 file(s)

  • China power and renewable markets long-term outlook H1 2017 PDF - 1014.89 KB 34 Pages, 7 Tables, 32 Figures
  • China Power Data.xlsx XLSX - 458.63 KB
  • The Aurora power model for China.pdf PDF - 1.36 MB


The power sector is rapidly transitioning to a cleaner generation mix supported by technological and regulatory changes. Regional markets and structures are adjusting to these new realities with implications on fuel demand, commodity pricing and asset values.

This Power Markets Long Term Outlook report provides a detailed analysis of supply, demand and price fundamentals, as well as the regulatory and market issues affecting regional power markets.

Use this report to examine key issues driving regulatory and economic trends and identify future growth opportunities in regional power markets.

Wood Mackenzie's detailed analysis and reliable market forecasts give you a strong foundation for your investment decisions and corporate planning. Our experienced power research analysts use high-quality proprietary gas, coal and oil markets research to help you unlock power market fundamentals and identify future growth opportunities.

  • Executive summary
    • China's power demand growth faces more uncertainties
    • US$1 trillion worth of consolidation deals are brewing
    • Excess coal-fired capacity set to ease but utilisation will stay low
    • Power liberalisation and favourable policies will unlock more headroom for gas
    • Renewables gain more support but curtailments set to linger
    • Natural system balancing weakens the need for UHV transmission longer term
    • Key data tables
      • China power market balance
    • Key facts and changes
  • Economic outlook
  • Policy and regulation
    • Environmental and energy policies
    • Carbon trading market
      • Power market reform
        • Direct power sales
        • Bidding-based market transaction
  • Market structure
    • Regional grids
    • Generation
  • Demand
  • Supply
    • Coal
      • Gas
    • Hydro: run-of-river and reservoir
    • Hydro: pumped storage
    • Nuclear
    • Renewables: wind
    • Renewable generation
    • Total power generation
    • Reserve margin
  • Infrastructure
    • Power Infrastructure
      • Power transmission
      • Power flows
  • Cost and prices
    • Long-run marginal cost
    • On-grid tariffs
  • Risks and uncertainties

In this report there are 39 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • China power available capacity
    • Executive summary: Table 2
    • China gas demand
    • Key facts in power market regulation
    • Key changes to power analysis from H2 2016 publication
  • Economic outlook
    • Economic Indicators
  • Policy and regulation
    • Pollutant discharge standards for coal-fired plants
    • Carbon emission under different prices
  • Market structure
    • Major players in China's power generation market 2016 (MW)
    • The Big Five Gencos' capacity by fuel type in 2015
  • Demand
    • Forecast power demand vs. GDP
    • Forecast power demand vs. elasticity
    • Forecast power demand by region
    • Forecast power demand by sector
    • Historical power consumption by region
    • Historical power consumption by sector
    • Historical monthly power demand by region
  • Supply
    • 2016 installed capacity by region
    • 2016 installed capacity by fuel
    • Installed capacity by fuel 2015-2035
    • Installed capacity by region 2015-2035
    • Gas demand in power by region
    • Solar capacity by region
    • Wind capacity by region
    • Power generation by fuel
    • Power generation by region
    • Installed capacity grid reserve margin
    • De-rated grid reserve margin with transmissions
    • Incremental capacity by fuel
    • Power plant investment by fuel
  • Infrastructure
    • China inter-regional key power transmission infrastructure by 2020
    • Infrastructure: Image 2
    • Infrastructure: Image 3
  • Cost and prices
    • Cost and prices: Table 1
    • Cost and prices: Image 1
    • Historical on-grid tariff by fuel
    • Historical on-grid tariff by region
  • Risks and uncertainties
    • China key power demand uncertainties
    • China key power supply uncertainties
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