Commodity Market Report

China power and renewable markets long-term outlook H1 2017

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Report summary

We have revised upward our long-term China power demand forecast. There are two reasons for the change. Firstly, the government increased its power demand numbers for 2015. Secondly, stimulus around infrastructure construction pulled up heavy industrial output, which led to stronger power demand in 2016 and 2017. But these short-term gains are at the cost of long-term pains in which growth potential is overdrawn. The downtrend in the longer term will become more evident with the accelerating transition towards services in the economy. We continue to see China's environmental policies reshaping its energy supply options. Excess coal-fired capacity will be eased, but low utilisation will follow once these projects are completed. Gas power is increasingly favoured as a way to combat air pollution and smooth out intermittent renewable output. Curtailments to wind and solar generation will remain in the near term with waves of projects coming onstream.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    China power and renewable markets long-term outlook H1 2017

    PDF 1014.89 KB

  • Document

    China Power Data.xlsx

    XLSX 458.63 KB

  • Document

    The Aurora power model for China.pdf

    PDF 1.36 MB

  • Document

    China power and renewable markets long-term outlook H1 2017

    ZIP 2.68 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 117.33 KB

  • Document

    Economic outlook

    PDF 57.38 KB

  • Document

    Policy and regulation

    PDF 108.29 KB

  • Document

    Market structure

    PDF 93.19 KB

  • Document

    Demand

    PDF 115.03 KB

  • Document

    Supply

    PDF 183.62 KB

  • Document

    Infrastructure

    PDF 371.54 KB

  • Document

    Cost and prices

    PDF 142.30 KB

  • Document

    Risks and uncertainties

    PDF 276.05 KB

Table of contents

    • China's power demand growth faces more uncertainties
    • US$1 trillion worth of consolidation deals are brewing
    • Excess coal-fired capacity set to ease but utilisation will stay low
    • Power liberalisation and favourable policies will unlock more headroom for gas
    • Renewables gain more support but curtailments set to linger
    • Natural system balancing weakens the need for UHV transmission longer term
      • China power market balance
    • Key facts and changes
  • Economic outlook
    • Regional grids
    • Generation
  • Demand
      • Gas
    • Hydro: run-of-river and reservoir
    • Hydro: pumped storage
    • Nuclear
    • Renewables: wind
    • Renewable generation
    • Total power generation
    • Reserve margin
    • Long-run marginal cost
    • On-grid tariffs
  • Risks and uncertainties

Tables and charts

This report includes 39 images and tables including:

Tables

  • Economic Indicators
  • China power available capacity
  • Key facts in power market regulation
  • Key changes to power analysis from H2 2016 publication
  • Cost and prices: Table 1
  • Executive summary: Table 2
  • China gas demand

Images

  • Forecast power demand vs. GDP
  • Forecast power demand vs. elasticity
  • Forecast power demand by region
  • Forecast power demand by sector
  • Historical power consumption by region
  • Historical power consumption by sector
  • Historical monthly power demand by region
  • 2016 installed capacity by region
  • 2016 installed capacity by fuel
  • China key power demand uncertainties
  • China key power supply uncertainties
  • Pollutant discharge standards for coal-fired plants
  • Carbon emission under different prices
  • Major players in China's power generation market 2016 (MW)
  • The Big Five Gencos' capacity by fuel type in 2015
  • Installed capacity by fuel 2015-2035
  • Installed capacity by region 2015-2035
  • Solar capacity by region
  • Wind capacity by region
  • Power generation by fuel
  • Power generation by region
  • Installed capacity grid reserve margin
  • De-rated grid reserve margin with transmissions
  • Incremental capacity by fuel
  • Power plant investment by fuel
  • Cost and prices: Image 1
  • Historical on-grid tariff by fuel
  • Historical on-grid tariff by region
  • Gas demand in power by region
  • China inter-regional key power transmission infrastructure by 2020
  • Infrastructure: Image 2
  • Infrastructure: Image 3

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