Commodity market report
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25 Pages

China power markets long-term outlook H1 2014

China power markets long-term outlook H1 2014

Report summary

With a downgraded outlook for the Chinese economy, we have reduced our mid-term forecast of power demand by around 3% compared with our previous view. Also, the twin drivers of environmental imperatives and the slower pace of nuclear build results in our overall installed capacity forecast falling by 6% during 2014-2020 compared to the H1 outlook. 

The H2 2013 update considers these developments and provides our latest outlooks for power supply, demand and price in China.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • China power markets long-term outlook H1 2014 PDF - 6.82 MB 25 Pages, 5 Tables, 29 Figures
  • China Power Data.xls XLS - 594.50 KB


The power sector is rapidly transitioning to a cleaner generation mix supported by technological and regulatory changes. Regional markets and structures are adjusting to these new realities with implications on fuel demand, commodity pricing and asset values.

This Power Markets Long Term Outlook report provides a detailed analysis of supply, demand and price fundamentals, as well as the regulatory and market issues affecting regional power markets.

Use this report to examine key issues driving regulatory and economic trends and identify future growth opportunities in regional power markets.

Wood Mackenzie's detailed analysis and reliable market forecasts give you a strong foundation for your investment decisions and corporate planning. Our experienced power research analysts use high-quality proprietary gas, coal and oil markets research to help you unlock power market fundamentals and identify future growth opportunities.

  • Executive summary
    • Environmental targets boosting mid-term and long-term gas demand growth
    • Higher gas prices now a reality, with the residential sector now bracing for price hikes
    • Medium-term power demand growth remains 'soft' on the back of weaker GDP
    • Key facts and updates
  • Economic outlook
  • Policy and regulation
    • Environmental policy
      • Market reform
    • Direct power sales
    • Market structure
      • Regional grids
      • Generation
  • Demand
  • Supply
    • Coal
      • Gas
    • Hydro-- run-of-river and reservoir
    • Hydro-- pumped storage
    • Nuclear
    • Wind
    • Solar
    • Total power generation
    • Reserve margin
    • Power plant investment
  • Infrastructure
    • Power Infrastructure
      • Power transmission
      • Power flows
  • Prices
    • On-grid tariffs
    • Coal-power pricing indexation mechanism
  • Risks and uncertainties

In this report there are 34 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • key facts
    • China power available capacity
    • China power market balance
    • Executive summary: Table 4
  • Economic outlook
    • China GDP growth
    • Economic outlook: Table 1
  • Policy and regulation
    • Pollutant discharge standards for coal-fired plants
    • Major players in China's power generation market 2013 (MW)
  • Demand
    • Forecast power demand vs. GDP
    • Forecast power demand vs. elasticity
    • Demand: Image 3
    • Historical power consumption by region
    • Historical power consumption by sector
    • Historical monthly power demand by region
    • Forecast monthly power demand by region
    • Forecast monthly power demand by fuel
  • Supply
    • 2012 installed capacity by region
    • 2012 installed capacity by fuel
    • Installed capacity by fuel 2012-2033
    • Installed capacity by region 2012-2033
    • Gas demand in power by region
    • Power generation by fuel
    • Power generation by region
    • Installed capacity grid reserve margin
    • De-rated grid reserve margin with transmissions
    • Incremental capacity by fuel
    • Power plant investment by fuel
  • Infrastructure
    • China inter-regional key power transmission infrastructure by 2020
    • Power flows from major exporters
    • power flows into major importers
  • Prices
    • Historical on-grid tariff by fuel
    • Historical on-grid tariff by region
  • Risks and uncertainties
    • China key power demand uncertainties
    • China key power supply uncertainties
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