Commodity market report
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23 Pages

Decarbonising power in mature markets: Europe power and renewables long-term outlook H2 2016


Decarbonising power in mature markets: Europe power and renewables long-term outlook H2 2016

Report summary

Growth in renewable power supply, compounded by weak demand, has placed substantial pressure on the operation and economics of many gas and coal-fired generators – leading to increased concern over the ability of markets to continue providing security of supply. The changing characteristics of supply and significant pressure on the traditional utility business model in Europe have combined with the conflicting demands of national, regional and corporate priorities – for many the European power sector has become a very challenging place in which to operate.

 


What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Decarbonising power in mature markets: Europe power and renewables long-term outlook H2 2016 PDF - 585.67 KB 23 Pages, 0 Tables, 22 Figures
  • Europe Power H2 16.xls XLS - 2.20 MB

Description

The power sector is rapidly transitioning to a cleaner generation mix supported by technological and regulatory changes. Regional markets and structures are adjusting to these new realities with implications on fuel demand, commodity pricing and asset values.

This Power Markets Long Term Outlook report provides a detailed analysis of supply, demand and price fundamentals, as well as the regulatory and market issues affecting regional power markets.

Use this report to examine key issues driving regulatory and economic trends and identify future growth opportunities in regional power markets.

Wood Mackenzie's detailed analysis and reliable market forecasts give you a strong foundation for your investment decisions and corporate planning. Our experienced power research analysts use high-quality proprietary gas, coal and oil markets research to help you unlock power market fundamentals and identify future growth opportunities.

  • Executive summary
    • European climate-energy policy continues to drive transformation
    • But renewable growth has moderated and the most generous incentives are ended
      • Renewable power supply by source and market share (EU 28)
    • Now conventional technologies are the ones requiring support
      • European power supply by source
    • No way back into the mix for coal though
    • Upside for gas in the next decade
    • Mixed fortunes for nuclear
  • Demand
    • Slow recovery and continued weak demand in mature power markets
    • Industrial transition provides contrasting growth prospects
    • Electric vehicles gain market share as costs reduce
  • Renewables
    • Wind
    • Solar
    • Hydro
  • Supply
    • Low carbon growth puts pressure on conventional technologies
      • The changing role of conventional capacity
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Generation output
      • Gas replaces lost output from coal, oil and nuclear
      • Substantial decarbonisation as renewable growth continues
      • Coal's decline gathers pace as capacity retirements mount
  • Prices
  • Risks and uncertainties
    • Fuel & emissions cost uncertainty
    • Renewable power costs and support – driver or barrier to growth?
    • Electricity demand uncertainty
    • Expansion of nuclear new-build
    • New technologies - electricity storage and CCS

In this report there are 22 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Executive summary: Image 1
    • Executive summary: Image 2
  • Demand
    • Electricity demand
    • European Power demand from EVs
    • Carbon intensity of EVs (2014)
  • Renewables
    • Growth in renewable generation capacity and share of total power supply
    • Renewables: Image 2
    • Renewables: Image 3
    • Renewables: Image 4
    • Renewables: Image 5
    • Solar capacity and share in largest EU markets
    • Hydro power capacity, 2000-2035
    • Hydro capacity and share in largest EU markets
    • Cost of renewable support per unit of total power supply (2012)
  • Supply
    • Break-even costs of new-build technologies (LRMC)
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 1
    • Power supply by source
    • Carbon intensity of power supply (ETS markets only)
    • Power supply - change between forecasts
  • Prices
    • European power prices – annual base load
    • Clean spark spreads
    • Clean dark spread (low efficiency)
  • Risks and uncertainties
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