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Decarbonising power in mature markets: Europe power and renewables long-term outlook H2 2016

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22 December 2016

Decarbonising power in mature markets: Europe power and renewables long-term outlook H2 2016

Report summary

Growth in renewable power supply, compounded by weak demand, has placed substantial pressure on the operation and economics of many gas and coal-fired generators – leading to increased concern over the ability of markets to continue providing security of supply. The changing characteristics of supply and significant pressure on the traditional utility business model in Europe have combined with the conflicting demands of national, regional and corporate priorities – for many the European power sector has become a very challenging place in which to operate.  

Table of contents

    • European climate-energy policy continues to drive transformation
    • But renewable growth has moderated and the most generous incentives are ended
      • Renewable power supply by source and market share (EU 28)
    • Now conventional technologies are the ones requiring support
      • European power supply by source
    • No way back into the mix for coal though
    • Upside for gas in the next decade
    • Mixed fortunes for nuclear
    • Slow recovery and continued weak demand in mature power markets
    • Industrial transition provides contrasting growth prospects
    • Electric vehicles gain market share as costs reduce
    • Wind
    • Solar
    • Hydro
    • Low carbon growth puts pressure on conventional technologies
      • The changing role of conventional capacity
    • Generation output
      • Gas replaces lost output from coal, oil and nuclear
      • Substantial decarbonisation as renewable growth continues
      • Coal's decline gathers pace as capacity retirements mount
  • Prices
    • Fuel & emissions cost uncertainty
    • Renewable power costs and support – driver or barrier to growth?
    • Electricity demand uncertainty
    • Expansion of nuclear new-build
    • New technologies - electricity storage and CCS

Tables and charts

This report includes 22 images and tables including:

  • Growth in renewable generation capacity and share of total power supply
  • Renewables: Image 2
  • European power prices – annual base load
  • Clean spark spreads
  • Clean dark spread (low efficiency)
  • Electricity demand
  • European Power demand from EVs
  • Carbon intensity of EVs (2014)
  • Renewables: Image 3
  • Renewables: Image 4
  • Renewables: Image 5
  • Solar capacity and share in largest EU markets
  • Hydro power capacity, 2000-2035
  • Hydro capacity and share in largest EU markets
  • Cost of renewable support per unit of total power supply (2012)
  • Executive summary: Image 1
  • Executive summary: Image 2
  • Break-even costs of new-build technologies (LRMC)
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 1
  • Power supply by source
  • Carbon intensity of power supply (ETS markets only)
  • Power supply - change between forecasts

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Europe Power H2 16.xls

    XLS 2.20 MB

  • Document

    Decarbonising power in mature markets: Europe power and renewables long-term outlook H2 2016

    PDF 585.67 KB

  • Document

    Decarbonising power in mature markets: Europe power and renewables long-term outlook H2 2016

    ZIP 1.10 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 120.64 KB

  • Document

    Demand

    PDF 131.13 KB

  • Document

    Renewables

    PDF 184.64 KB

  • Document

    Supply

    PDF 151.63 KB

  • Document

    Supply-demand balances

    PDF 111.75 KB

  • Document

    Prices

    PDF 140.57 KB

  • Document

    Risks and uncertainties

    PDF 91.66 KB

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