Commodity market report
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7 Pages

Emerging technologies move forward: ERCOT power and renewables H1 2017 long-term highlights


Emerging technologies move forward: ERCOT power and renewables H1 2017 long-term highlights

Report summary

In this outlook we have extended our forecast to 2040 (from 2036)  to help give longer visibility around prices, supply and demand, and generator economics. A number of other changes stand out.  Long-term electric demand is higher thanks in large part to a higher penetration of electric vehicles. In terms of thermal generation, many US coal and nuclear reactors reach the end of their 60 year life and retire. As a result, North America power gas demand will double over the forecast.

What's included?

This report includes 22 file(s)

  • Emerging technologies move forward: ERCOT power and renewables H1 2017 long-term highlights PDF - 373.31 KB 7 Pages, 0 Tables, 5 Figures
  • NAPS LTO Report 6 15 2017 Appendix Modeling Enhancements.pdf PDF - 537.47 KB
  • H1 2017 Americas Power & Renewables Base Case highlights.pdf PDF - 4.68 MB
  • WoodMac NAPR PowerGlossary.pdf PDF - 376.00 KB
  • NAPS LTO Battery Cost Forecast ERCOT 6 15 2017.xlsx XLSX - 100.87 KB
  • NAPRS LTO Capacity Prices ERCOT 6 15 2017.xlsx XLSX - 289.39 KB
  • NAPRS LTO Coal Clean Equipment Data ERCOT 6 15 2017.xlsx XLSX - 301.30 KB
  • NAPRS LTO Coal Retirements ERCOT 6 15 2017.xlsx XLSX - 56.86 KB
  • NAPRS LTO Delivered Fuel Prices Nominal ERCOT 6 15 2017.xlsx XLSX - 504.75 KB
  • NAPRS LTO Delivered Fuel Prices Real ERCOT 6 15 2017.xlsx XLSX - 512.77 KB
  • NAPRS LTO Emission Prices Nominal ERCOT 6 15 2017.xlsx XLSX - 122.30 KB
  • NAPRS LTO Emission Prices Real ERCOT 6 15 2017.xlsx XLSX - 122.21 KB
  • NAPRS LTO Emissions ERCOT 6 15 2017.xlsx XLSX - 151.41 KB
  • NAPRS LTO Load Forecast ERCOT 6 15 2017.xlsx XLSX - 2.59 MB
  • NAPRS LTO Macroeconomics ERCOT 6 15 2017.xlsx XLSX - 116.89 KB
  • NAPRS LTO Prices Sparks IHR Darks Nominal ERCOT 6 15 2017.xlsx XLSX - 3.58 MB
  • NAPRS LTO Prices Sparks IHR Darks Real ERCOT 6 15 2017.xlsx XLSX - 5.56 MB
  • NAPRS LTO Renewable Energy Credit prices ERCOT 6 15 2017.xlsx XLSX - 974.74 KB
  • NAPRS LTO Solar DG ERCOT 6 15 2017.xlsx XLSX - 83.21 KB
  • NAPRS LTO State RPS Targets ERCOT 6 15 2017.xlsx XLSX - 220.32 KB
  • NAPRS LTO Supply Demand Energy ERCOT 6 15 2017.xlsx XLSX - 689.48 KB
  • NAPRS LTO Transmission Projects in Base Case ERCOT 6 15 2017.xlsx XLSX - 79.04 KB

Description

The power sector is rapidly transitioning to a cleaner generation mix supported by technological and regulatory changes. Regional markets and structures are adjusting to these new realities with implications on fuel demand, commodity pricing and asset values.

This Power Markets Long Term Outlook report provides a detailed analysis of supply, demand and price fundamentals, as well as the regulatory and market issues affecting regional power markets.

Use this report to examine key issues driving regulatory and economic trends and identify future growth opportunities in regional power markets.

Wood Mackenzie's detailed analysis and reliable market forecasts give you a strong foundation for your investment decisions and corporate planning. Our experienced power research analysts use high-quality proprietary gas, coal and oil markets research to help you unlock power market fundamentals and identify future growth opportunities.

  • Executive summary
    • Demand – EVs increasingly offset impact of expanding distributed generation
    • Gas prices – supply continues to outpace demand
    • Carbon prices – what’s old is new again
    • Coal retirements – more coal plants expected to make it to the end of their useful life
    • Nuclear
    • Renewables
    • Gas fired generation
    • Prices – near to mid term pressures still prevalent, although carbon prices give a long term boost

In this report there are 5 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Figure 1: Forecast natural gas prices (H1 2017 vs H2 2016)
    • Figure 2: Forecast carbon prices (H1 2017 vs H2 2016)
    • Figure 3: Announced coal retirements since November 2016
    • Figure 4: Forecast North America generation balances
    • Figure 5: Forecasted average North American power prices (H1 2017 vs H2 2016)
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