Commodity Market Report

Emerging technologies move forward: Southeast power and renewables H1 2017 long-term highlights

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23 June 2017

Emerging technologies move forward: Southeast power and renewables H1 2017 long-term highlights

Report summary

In this outlook we have extended our forecast to 2040 (from 2036)  to help give longer visibility around prices, supply and demand, and generator economics. A number of other changes stand out.  Long-term electric demand is higher thanks in large part to a higher penetration of electric vehicles. In terms of thermal generation, many US coal and nuclear reactors reach the end of their 60 year life and retire. As a result, North America power gas demand will double over the forecast.

Table of contents

    • Demand – EVs increasingly offset impact of expanding distributed generation
    • Gas prices – supply continues to outpace demand
    • Carbon prices – what’s old is new again
    • Coal retirements – more coal plants expected to make it to the end of their useful life
    • Nuclear
    • Renewables
    • Gas fired generation
    • Prices – near to mid term pressures still prevalent, although carbon prices give a long term boost

Tables and charts

This report includes 5 images and tables including:

  • Figure 1: Forecast natural gas prices (H1 2017 vs H2 2016)
  • Figure 2: Forecast carbon prices (H1 2017 vs H2 2016)
  • Figure 3: Announced coal retirements since November 2016
  • Figure 4: Forecast North America generation balances
  • Figure 5: Forecasted average North American power prices (H1 2017 vs H2 2016)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    NAPS LTO Report 6 15 2017 Appendix Modeling Enhancements.pdf

    PDF 537.47 KB

  • Document

    H1 2017 Americas Power & Renewables Base Case highlights.pdf

    PDF 8.65 MB

  • Document

    WoodMac NAPR PowerGlossary.pdf

    PDF 376.00 KB

  • Document

    NAPS LTO Battery Cost Forecast Southeast 6 15 2017.xlsx

    XLSX 100.86 KB

  • Document

    NAPRS LTO Capacity Prices Southeast 6 15 2017.xlsx

    XLSX 303.61 KB

  • Document

    NAPRS LTO Coal Clean Equipment Data Southeast 6 15 2017.xlsx

    XLSX 301.30 KB

  • Document

    NAPRS LTO Coal Retirements Southeast 6 15 2017.xlsx

    XLSX 70.77 KB

  • Document

    NAPRS LTO Delivered Fuel Prices Nominal Southeast 6 15 2017.xlsx

    XLSX 533.28 KB

  • Document

    NAPRS LTO Delivered Fuel Prices Real Southeast 6 15 2017.xlsx

    XLSX 541.34 KB

  • Document

    NAPRS LTO Emission Prices Nominal Southeast 6 15 2017.xlsx

    XLSX 123.75 KB

  • Document

    NAPRS LTO Emission Prices Real Southeast 6 15 2017.xlsx

    XLSX 123.89 KB

  • Document

    NAPRS LTO Emissions Southeast 6 15 2017.xlsx

    XLSX 180.17 KB

  • Document

    NAPRS LTO Load Forecast Southeast 6 15 2017.xlsx

    XLSX 2.69 MB

  • Document

    NAPRS LTO Macroeconomics Southeast 6 15 2017.xlsx

    XLSX 115.83 KB

  • Document

    NAPRS LTO Prices Sparks IHR Darks Nominal Southeast 6 15 2017.xlsx

    XLSX 5.09 MB

  • Document

    NAPRS LTO Prices Sparks IHR Darks Real Southeast 6 15 2017.xlsx

    XLSX 7.22 MB

  • Document

    NAPRS LTO Renewable Energy Credit prices Southeast 6 15 2017.xlsx

    XLSX 975.45 KB

  • Document

    NAPRS LTO Solar DG Southeast 6 15 2017.xlsx

    XLSX 97.91 KB

  • Document

    NAPRS LTO State RPS Targets Southeast 6 15 2017.xlsx

    XLSX 503.87 KB

  • Document

    NAPRS LTO Supply Demand Energy Southeast 6 15 2017.xlsx

    XLSX 903.11 KB

  • Document

    NAPRS LTO Transmission Projects in Base Case Southeast 6 15 2017.xlsx

    XLSX 77.86 KB

  • Document

    Emerging technologies move forward: Southeast power and renewables H1 2017 long-term highlights

    PDF 828.50 KB

  • Document

    Emerging technologies move forward: Southeast power and renewables H1 2017 long-term highlights

    ZIP 24.65 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 828.43 KB

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