Commodity Market Report

ERCOT Power & Renewables long term outlook H1 2016

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23 June 2016

ERCOT Power & Renewables long term outlook H1 2016

Report summary

In this outlook, reduced long term demand growth delays recovery in North American power markets. Lower capacity and energy prices in some markets will keep pressure on certain coal generators, while several existing nuclear facilities are facing early retirement pressures. Compared to our previous outlook, 20 GW of additional wind capacity is added over the forecast, with the Clean Power Plan (CPP) and accelerating RPS targets in some states maintaining a relatively strong wind build long term

Table of contents

    • Introduction
    • GDP and overall demand growth revised lower
    • Natural gas prices see near to mid-term support on slowing of production
    • Carbon prices project lower on slower demand growth and continued renewable build-out
    • Coal retirements still see some upside in this outlook
    • While nuclear capacity now under increasing pressure
    • Reserve margins in flux through the forecast
    • Transmission still facing hurdles to reach potential in unlocking regional bottlenecks
    • Market rules look to offset pressure on prices from intermittent generation

Tables and charts

No table or charts specified

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    ERCOT Regional Market Overview.pdf

    PDF 2.58 MB

  • Document

    North America Power & Renewables Long-term outlook H1 2016 Report.pdf

    PDF 5.16 MB

  • Document

    North America Power & Renewables Long-term outlook H1 2016 Modelling Assumptions.pdf

    PDF 50.29 KB

  • Document

    North America Power & Renewables Long-term outlook H1 2016 Executive Summary.pdf

    PDF 612.98 KB

  • Document

    NAPS LTO Capacity Prices ERCOT 6 15 2016.xls

    XLS 706.00 KB

  • Document

    NAPS LTO Coal Clean Equipment Data ERCOT 6 15 2016.xls

    XLS 285.00 KB

  • Document

    NAPS LTO Coal Retirements ERCOT 6 15 2016.xls

    XLS 72.50 KB

  • Document

    NAPS LTO Delivered Fuel Prices Nominal ERCOT 6 15 2016.xls

    XLS 312.50 KB

  • Document

    NAPS LTO Delivered Fuel Prices Real ERCOT 6 15 2016.xls

    XLS 312.00 KB

  • Document

    NAPS LTO Emissions Forecast ERCOT 6 15 2016.xls

    XLS 4.14 MB

  • Document

    NAPS LTO Emission Prices Nominal ERCOT 6 15 2016.xls

    XLS 157.00 KB

  • Document

    NAPS LTO Emission Prices Real ERCOT 6 15 2016.xls

    XLS 157.00 KB

  • Document

    NAPS LTO Load Forecast ERCOT 6 15 2016.xls

    XLS 6.03 MB

  • Document

    NAPS LTO MacroEconomics Assumptions ERCOT 6 15 2016.xls

    XLS 1.79 MB

  • Document

    NAPS LTO Prices Sparks IHR Darks Nominal ERCOT 6 15 2016.xls

    XLS 12.97 MB

  • Document

    NAPS LTO Prices Sparks IHR Darks Real ERCOT 6 15 2016.xls

    XLS 12.97 MB

  • Document

    NAPS LTO Renewable Energy Credit Prices ERCOT 6 15 2016.xls

    XLS 4.51 MB

  • Document

    NAPS LTO State RPS Targets ERCOT 6 15 2016.xls

    XLS 488.00 KB

  • Document

    NAPS LTO Supply Demand Energy ERCOT 6 15 2016.xls

    XLS 2.40 MB

  • Document

    NAPS LTO Transmission Projects in Base Case ERCOT 6 15 2015.xls

    XLS 81.50 KB

  • Document

    NAPS LTO Transmission Trends Tracking 6 15 2016.xls

    XLS 151.00 KB

  • Document

    ERCOT Power & Renewables long term outlook H1 2016

    ZIP 16.73 MB