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ERCOT power markets long-term outlook H2 2014

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Report summary

Electricity demand has faced strong headwinds over the past 7 years. However 2015 may be a tipping point that sees demand growth accelerate. Nonetheless shale gas plays continue to exceed prior expectations putting downward pressure on prices. This and changing public sentiment have eroded support for new coal and nuclear units. The move to natural gas and renewables is causing changes to the very definition of reliability and is transforming capacity markets and compensation in the region.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    ERCOT Regional Market Overview.pdf

    PDF 1.97 MB

  • Document

    NAPS Modeling and Reporting Enhancements H2 2014.pdf

    PDF 49.25 KB

  • Document

    naps lto exec summary h2 2014.pdf

    PDF 2.47 MB

  • Document

    ERCOT power markets long-term outlook H2 2014

    ZIP 14.71 MB

  • Document

    NAPS LTO Capacity Prices ERCOT 11 30 2014.xls

    XLS 579.50 KB

  • Document

    NAPS LTO Coal Clean Equipment Data ERCOT 11 30 2014.xls

    XLS 284.50 KB

  • Document

    NAPS LTO Coal Retirements ERCOT 11 30 2014.xls

    XLS 91.00 KB

  • Document

    NAPS LTO Delivered Fuel Prices Nominal ERCOT 11 30 2014.xls

    XLS 322.00 KB

  • Document

    NAPS LTO Delivered Fuel Prices Real ERCOT 11 30 2014.xls

    XLS 320.00 KB

  • Document

    NAPS LTO Emission Prices Nominal ERCOT 11 30 2014.xls

    XLS 137.50 KB

  • Document

    NAPS LTO Emission Prices Real ERCOT 11 30 2014.xls

    XLS 137.50 KB

  • Document

    NAPS LTO Load Forecast ERCOT 11 30 2014.xls

    XLS 6.01 MB

  • Document

    NAPS LTO MacroEconomics Assumptions ERCOT 11 30 2014.xls

    XLS 1.79 MB

  • Document

    NAPS LTO Prices Sparks IHR Darks Real ERCOT 11 30 2014.xls

    XLS 13.37 MB

  • Document

    NAPS LTO Prices Sparks IHR Darks Nominal ERCOT 11 30 2014.xls

    XLS 13.37 MB

  • Document

    NAPS LTO Renewable Energy Credit Prices ERCOT 11 30 2014.xls

    XLS 4.51 MB

  • Document

    NAPS LTO State RPS Targets ERCOT 11 30 2014.xls

    XLS 504.00 KB

  • Document

    NAPS LTO Supply Demand Energy ERCOT 11 30 2014.xls

    XLS 2.48 MB

  • Document

    NAPS LTO Transmission Expansion ERCOT 11 30 2014.xls

    XLS 94.00 KB

  • Document

    ERCOT power markets long-term outlook H2 2014

    PDF 1.89 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 75.25 KB

  • Document

    Policy and regulation

    PDF 1.00 MB

  • Document

    Demand

    PDF 189.76 KB

  • Document

    Costs

    PDF 156.45 KB

  • Document

    Supply

    PDF 176.81 KB

  • Document

    Trade

    PDF 72.31 KB

  • Document

    Prices

    PDF 495.42 KB

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Policy and regulation
  • Demand
  • Costs
  • Supply
  • Trade
  • Prices

Tables and charts

This report includes 34 images and tables including:

Images

  • Figure 2: GDP growth and electric demand growth linkage
  • Figure 3: State Retail Sales: Percentage above/below pre-recession levels
  • Figure 4: Domestic Energy and its impacts : Resurgence of Industrial Demand
  • Figure 1: CPP Compliance Timeline
  • Figure 13: Comparison of Wood Mackenzie assumed coal retirements over previous forecasts
  • Figure 14: Installed wind capability
  • Figure 15: Large Scale Solar
  • Supply: Image 4
  • Supply: Image 5
  • Figure 18: Changes in generation by region 2014-2035
  • Supply: Image 7
  • Figure 20: Change in regional emissions
  • Figure 21: Regional supply and demand balances
  • Prices: Image 1
  • Figure 23: New England Surplus reserve margin
  • Figure 24: Capacity Price projection for ISO-NE Capacity Zones
  • Prices: Image 4
  • Figure 26: NYISO Cap Price forecast
  • Figure 27: PJM & MISO Supply Demand Balances
  • Figure 28: MISO and PJM Prices
  • Figure 29: California resource economics for new generating capacity
  • Figure 30: ERCOT resource economics for new generating capacity
  • Figure 5: Current demand response saturation by market as percent of peak
  • Figure 6: Distributed Generation Forecast
  • Figure 7: Henry Hub Price Forecast (H2 2014 vs H1 2014)
  • Figure 8: Basis outlook for peak winter and summer months
  • Costs: Image 3
  • Figure 9: FOB coal price forecast (Real 2014 US$)
  • Figure 10: Base Case assumed carbon price
  • Figure 11: Coal Gas Parity
  • Costs: Image 7

Tables

  • Policy and regulation: Table 1
  • Prices: Table 1
  • Prices: Table 2

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