Commodity market report
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8 Pages

ERCOT power markets short-term outlook August 2016


ERCOT power markets short-term outlook August 2016

Report summary

Despite weaker year on year power demand for the first half of September, going forward, total generation is expected to exceed last year for the duration of 2016. Average US weather support for October, November and December in 2015 was 10% below normal or worse, while only September saw stronger than normal support the final part of last year.  Assuming normal weather over the remainder of 2016, this is expected to give generation balances for coal and natural gas a boost.    

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • ERCOT power markets short-term outlook August 2016 PDF - 347.70 KB 8 Pages, 1 Tables, 4 Figures
  • NAPS STO ERCOT 8 31 2016.xls XLS - 27.21 MB

Description

The power sector is rapidly transitioning to a cleaner generation mix supported by technological and regulatory changes. Regional markets and structures are adjusting to these new realities with implications on fuel demand, commodity pricing and asset values.

This Power Markets Short Term Outlook report provides a detailed analysis of supply, demand and price fundamentals, as well as the regulatory and market issues affecting regional power markets.

Use this report to examine key issues driving regulatory and economic trends and identify future growth opportunities in regional power markets.

Wood Mackenzie's detailed analysis and reliable market forecasts give you a strong foundation for your investment decisions and corporate planning. Our experienced power research analysts use high-quality proprietary gas, coal and oil markets research to help you unlock power market fundamentals and identify future growth opportunities.

  • Executive summary
  • Fundamentals
    • Natural gas price outlook little changed from our last update
      • Stronger markets in 2017
      • Could US gas-to-coal competition keep gas prices below $3.50 in 2017?
  • Generation balance and prices
    • Despite sluggish start to September, rest of year should see improving fundamentals
      • Demand
      • Supply
    • Coal capacity becoming increasingly responsive to wind generation
    • WECC
      • Demand
      • Earlier retirement of Reid Gardner 4
  • Scenario Overview

In this report there are 5 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
  • Fundamentals
  • Generation balance and prices
    • Figure 1: Changes in Eastern power market fundamentals (Relative to July 2016 STO)
    • Figure 2: Relative changes in Eastern markets’ power price metrics (Relative to July 2016 STO)
    • Figure 3: Changes in WECC power market fundamentals (Relative to July 2016 STO)
    • Figure 4: Relative changes in WECC markets’ power price metrics (Relative to July 2016 STO)
  • Scenario Overview
    • Figure 5: North American power generation balances and fuel prices
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