Commodity market report
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9 Pages

ERCOT power markets short-term outlook December 2014


ERCOT power markets short-term outlook December 2014

Report summary

Last winter, weather driven demand drove higher average natural gas prices across North America.  This year, higher pricing and reliability challenges look to be less of a concern, as coal supply limitations look to be regionalized.  Lower natural gas prices and coal retirements needed for MATS compliance promote more natural gas generation. Additionally, inter-regional gas on gas competition will ultimately provide an increase in market share for generators in the highest priced gas markets.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • ERCOT power markets short-term outlook December 2014 PDF - 376.26 KB 9 Pages, 1 Tables, 3 Figures
  • NAPS STO ERCOT 12 31 2014.xls XLS - 26.07 MB

Description

The power sector is rapidly transitioning to a cleaner generation mix supported by technological and regulatory changes. Regional markets and structures are adjusting to these new realities with implications on fuel demand, commodity pricing and asset values.

This Power Markets Short Term Outlook report provides a detailed analysis of supply, demand and price fundamentals, as well as the regulatory and market issues affecting regional power markets.

Use this report to examine key issues driving regulatory and economic trends and identify future growth opportunities in regional power markets.

Wood Mackenzie's detailed analysis and reliable market forecasts give you a strong foundation for your investment decisions and corporate planning. Our experienced power research analysts use high-quality proprietary gas, coal and oil markets research to help you unlock power market fundamentals and identify future growth opportunities.

  • Executive summary
  • Supply
    • Strong winter demand intervals needed to provide upside to natural gas pricing
    • Natural gas pricing
      • Coal pricing
        • Marcellus and Utica natural gas production continue to put the squeeze on coal demand with international markets failing to offer support
        • Below average stockpiles may limit coal market ability to respond to any natural gas price and power demand volatility this winte
      • Coal-to-gas switching competition
        • Fuel supply inadequacies limited to regional markets
        • NERC generation balances defined by system retirements and coal-to-gas substitution levels
        • Figure 1: NERC wide generation balances 2015-2016
        • Figure 2: Forward natural gas price sensitivity
        • Sensitivities highlight potential natural gas market share
        • Regional coal to natural gas demand curves and market share impacts
        • Figure 3: Natural gas power generation sensitivity to natural gas prices
  • Scenarios and sensitivities

In this report there are 4 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
  • Supply
    • Supply: Image 1
    • Supply: Image 2
    • Supply: Image 3
  • Scenarios and sensitivities
    • Scenarios and sensitivities: Table 1
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