Commodity market report
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8 Pages

ERCOT power markets short-term outlook February 2016

ERCOT power markets short-term outlook February 2016

Report summary

Demand for power grows slightly in this outlook, as the economy does continue to grow overall. Natural gas generation balances in the current forecast also benefit from a combination of stronger loads and lower gas prices. As a result of the move lower in natural gas prices, power prices moved lower overall. However, the lower coal burn and greater call on natural gas boost heat rates across the Eastern Interconnect, relative to the previous report, offsetting some of the overall price decline.    

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • ERCOT power markets short-term outlook February 2016 PDF - 366.66 KB 8 Pages, 1 Tables, 5 Figures
  • NAPS STO STV ERCOT 2 29 2016.xls XLS - 26.65 MB


The power sector is rapidly transitioning to a cleaner generation mix supported by technological and regulatory changes. Regional markets and structures are adjusting to these new realities with implications on fuel demand, commodity pricing and asset values.

This Power Markets Short Term Outlook report provides a detailed analysis of supply, demand and price fundamentals, as well as the regulatory and market issues affecting regional power markets.

Use this report to examine key issues driving regulatory and economic trends and identify future growth opportunities in regional power markets.

Wood Mackenzie's detailed analysis and reliable market forecasts give you a strong foundation for your investment decisions and corporate planning. Our experienced power research analysts use high-quality proprietary gas, coal and oil markets research to help you unlock power market fundamentals and identify future growth opportunities.

  • Executive summary
  • Fundamentals
    • Natural gas prices limp into the Spring period
      • Coal stockpiles will still limit the amount of market share for gas in the power market
      • Q3 and Q4 2016 price support comes as oil continues to help tighten markets
  • Generation balances and prices
    • Eastern power prices continue to remain under pressure from both supply and demand risks
      • Some near term growth in power demand despite current headwinds
      • Identified Capacity changes abated in February
      • Nuclear Uprate Adjustments
      • Generation balances continue to fluctuate
      • Coal to gas switching
    • Prices move down on lower gas prices but improved heat rates
      • Conditions may suppress volatility
    • WECC: coal losing market share
  • Scenario Overview

In this report there are 6 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
  • Fundamentals
  • Generation balances and prices
    • Figure 1: Changes in Eastern power market fundamentals (Relative to January 2016 STO)
    • Figure 2: Changes in 2016-17 Nuclear generation (Relative to January 2016 STO)
    • Figure 3: Relative changes in Eastern markets’ power price metrics (Relative to January 2016 STO)
    • Figure 4: Changes in WECC power market fundamentals (Relative to January 2016 STO)
    • Figure 5: Relative changes in WECC markets’ power price metrics (Relative to January 2016 STO)
  • Scenario Overview
    • Figure 6: North American power generation balances and fuel prices
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