Commodity market report
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8 Pages

ERCOT power markets short-term outlook July 2016

ERCOT power markets short-term outlook July 2016

Report summary

The extensions of the federal production tax credit (PTC) for wind energy and investment tax credit (ITC) for solar have taken some pressure off of renewable developers to finish projects by the end of 2016. As a result, about 5.2 GW of renewable capacity that was previously assumed to begin operation by mid-2016 has been delayed in this outlook. We also see lower nuclear generation in this forecast due to the retirements of Ft Calhoun, Quad Cities, and Clinton.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • ERCOT power markets short-term outlook July 2016 PDF - 358.14 KB 8 Pages, 1 Tables, 4 Figures
  • NAPS STO ERCOT 7 31 2016.xls XLS - 27.23 MB


The power sector is rapidly transitioning to a cleaner generation mix supported by technological and regulatory changes. Regional markets and structures are adjusting to these new realities with implications on fuel demand, commodity pricing and asset values.

This Power Markets Short Term Outlook report provides a detailed analysis of supply, demand and price fundamentals, as well as the regulatory and market issues affecting regional power markets.

Use this report to examine key issues driving regulatory and economic trends and identify future growth opportunities in regional power markets.

Wood Mackenzie's detailed analysis and reliable market forecasts give you a strong foundation for your investment decisions and corporate planning. Our experienced power research analysts use high-quality proprietary gas, coal and oil markets research to help you unlock power market fundamentals and identify future growth opportunities.

  • Executive summary
  • Fundamentals
    • Natural gas could see end of summer drop in prices
      • 2017 still looks bullish for natural gas
      • As coal stockpiles look to end 2017 at their lowest levels in a decade
  • Generation balance and prices
    • Changes to fundamentals look mixed in this update
      • Demand
      • Supply
    • 2016 summer scarcity premiums look to finish at moderate levels
    • WECC
      • Demand
      • Hydro
      • Aliso Canyon
  • Scenario Overview

In this report there are 5 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
  • Fundamentals
  • Generation balance and prices
    • Figure 1: Changes in Eastern power market fundamentals (Relative to June 2016 LTO)
    • Figure 2: Relative changes in Eastern markets’ power price metrics (Relative to June 2016 LTO)
    • Figure 3: Changes in WECC power market fundamentals (Relative to June 2016 LTO)
    • Figure 4: Relative changes in WECC markets’ power price metrics (Relative to June 2016 LTO)
  • Scenario Overview
    • Figure 5: North American power generation balances and fuel prices
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