Commodity market report
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21 Pages

Europe power and renewables long-term outlook H1 2016

Europe power and renewables long-term outlook H1 2016

Report summary

Climate-energy policy continues to drive an immense transition in the European power industry. Against a background of weak demand, growth in renewable power supply has placed substantial pressure on the operation and economics of gas and coal generators – leading to increased concern over the ability of markets to continue providing security of supply. The rapidly changing characteristics of supply and significant pressure on the traditional utility business model in Europe have combined with the conflicting demands of national, regional and corporate priorities – for many the European power sector has become a very challenging place in which to operate.


What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Europe power and renewables long-term outlook H1 2016 PDF - 504.36 KB 21 Pages, 1 Tables, 16 Figures
  • Europe Power H1 2016.xls XLS - 4.69 MB


The power sector is rapidly transitioning to a cleaner generation mix supported by technological and regulatory changes. Regional markets and structures are adjusting to these new realities with implications on fuel demand, commodity pricing and asset values.

This Power Markets Long Term Outlook report provides a detailed analysis of supply, demand and price fundamentals, as well as the regulatory and market issues affecting regional power markets.

Use this report to examine key issues driving regulatory and economic trends and identify future growth opportunities in regional power markets.

Wood Mackenzie's detailed analysis and reliable market forecasts give you a strong foundation for your investment decisions and corporate planning. Our experienced power research analysts use high-quality proprietary gas, coal and oil markets research to help you unlock power market fundamentals and identify future growth opportunities.

  • Executive summary
    • Power sector transition, crucial to EU climate-energy objectives
    • Coal’s prospects deteriorate further as cost and policy pressures mount
    • The shifting role of conventional technologies
      • European power supply by source
    • Coal’s prospects continue to deteriorate
    • Power supply from gas peaking in the mid-2020s
  • Demand
    • Slow recovery and continued weak demand in mature power markets
    • Industrial transition provides contrasting growth prospects
    • Electric vehicles gain market share as costs reduce
  • Renewables
    • Wind
    • Solar
    • Hydro
  • Supply
    • Low carbon growth puts pressure on conventional technologies
      • The changing role of conventional capacity
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Generation output
      • Gas replaces lost output from coal, oil and nuclear
      • Substantial decarbonisation as renewable growth continues
      • Coal's decline gathers pace as capacity retirements mount
  • Risks and uncertainties
    • Fuel & emissions cost uncertainty
    • Renewable power costs and support – driver or barrier to growth?
    • Electricity demand uncertainty
    • Expansion of nuclear new-build

In this report there are 17 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Renewable power supply by source and market share (EU 28)
    • Executive summary: Image 2
  • Demand
    • Electricity demand
  • Renewables
    • Growth in renewable generation capacity and share of total supply
    • Renewable electricity supply and targets
    • Renewables: Image 3
    • Renewables: Image 4
    • Renewables: Image 5
    • Solar capacity and share in largest EU markets
    • Hydro power capacity, 2000-2035
    • Hydro capacity and share in largest EU markets
    • Cost of renewable support per unit of total power supply (2012)
  • Supply
    • Break-even costs of new-build technologies (LRMC)
    • Capacity market and strategic reserve arrangements in European power markets
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Power supply by source
    • Carbon intensity of power supply (ETS markets only)
    • Power supply - change between forecasts
  • Risks and uncertainties
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