Commodity Market Report

Europe power and renewables long-term outlook H1 2016

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20 July 2016

Europe power and renewables long-term outlook H1 2016

Report summary

Climate-energy policy continues to drive an immense transition in the European power industry. Against a background of weak demand, growth in renewable power supply has placed substantial pressure on the operation and economics of gas and coal generators – leading to increased concern over the ability of markets to continue providing security of supply. The rapidly changing characteristics of supply and significant pressure on the traditional utility business model in Europe have combined with the conflicting demands of national, regional and corporate priorities – for many the European power sector has become a very challenging place in which to operate.  

Table of contents

    • Power sector transition, crucial to EU climate-energy objectives
    • Coal’s prospects deteriorate further as cost and policy pressures mount
    • The shifting role of conventional technologies
      • European power supply by source
    • Coal’s prospects continue to deteriorate
    • Power supply from gas peaking in the mid-2020s
    • Slow recovery and continued weak demand in mature power markets
    • Industrial transition provides contrasting growth prospects
    • Electric vehicles gain market share as costs reduce
    • Wind
    • Solar
    • Hydro
    • Low carbon growth puts pressure on conventional technologies
      • The changing role of conventional capacity
    • Generation output
      • Gas replaces lost output from coal, oil and nuclear
      • Substantial decarbonisation as renewable growth continues
      • Coal's decline gathers pace as capacity retirements mount
    • Fuel & emissions cost uncertainty
    • Renewable power costs and support – driver or barrier to growth?
    • Electricity demand uncertainty
    • Expansion of nuclear new-build

Tables and charts

This report includes 17 images and tables including:

  • Growth in renewable generation capacity and share of total supply
  • Renewable electricity supply and targets
  • Renewable power supply by source and market share (EU 28)
  • Electricity demand
  • Renewables: Image 3
  • Renewables: Image 4
  • Renewables: Image 5
  • Solar capacity and share in largest EU markets
  • Hydro power capacity, 2000-2035
  • Hydro capacity and share in largest EU markets
  • Cost of renewable support per unit of total power supply (2012)
  • Executive summary: Image 2
  • Break-even costs of new-build technologies (LRMC)
  • Capacity market and strategic reserve arrangements in European power markets
  • Power supply by source
  • Carbon intensity of power supply (ETS markets only)
  • Power supply - change between forecasts

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Europe Power H1 2016.xls

    XLS 4.69 MB

  • Document

    Europe power and renewables long-term outlook H1 2016

    PDF 504.36 KB

  • Document

    Europe power and renewables long-term outlook H1 2016

    ZIP 1.18 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 118.56 KB

  • Document


    PDF 105.60 KB

  • Document


    PDF 182.46 KB

  • Document


    PDF 160.87 KB

  • Document

    Supply-demand balances

    PDF 98.67 KB

  • Document

    Risks and uncertainties

    PDF 88.00 KB

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