Commodity Market Report

Europe power & renewables long-term outlook H1 2017: change isn't easy when you're a fossil

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14 August 2017

Europe power & renewables long-term outlook H1 2017: change isn't easy when you're a fossil

Report summary

The European Union’s commitment to its climate-energy objectives continues to drive far reaching changes in energy markets – nowhere is the influence of this transition seen as strongly as it is in the power sector. But the pace at which change is occurring in power has become a substantial test of both commercial market arrangements and the physical capabilities of infrastructure. 

Why buy this report?

As the power sector continues to transition to more renewable energy sources, Europe is leading the charge. Our comprehensive long-term power outlook allows you to:

  • Identify growth and investment opportunities within the power market
  • Understand evolving supply-demand fundamentals and supply-demand balance for renewable power
  • Use Europe's power market as an indicator of the challenges and growth that come with low-carbon regulation in the developed world

Our growing presence as power and renewables experts is supported by more than 40 years in the energy analysis space, and by dedicated power analysts located in niche markets throughout the world.


This long-term outlook on power markets examines the pace of the transition to renewable energy sources, using European supply-demand dynamics as a primary example. It includes:

  • An integrated outlook out to 20 years that includes cross-sector market analysis
  • Data and visualisations on supply, demand, price, power generation and more
  • An in-depth view of how Europe is meeting the challenges of the energy transition

Table of contents

    • Energy transition remains on course in the power sector
    • Low carbon growth, sustainably delivered?
    • Decarbonisation is difficult for fossil fuels
    • Coal’s bad run continues
    • Gas makes a comeback, but the story changes
    • Slow recovery and continued weak demand in mature power markets
    • Industrial transition and rising costs impact consumption
    • Residential and commercial demand offset by improved efficiency
    • Electric vehicles gain market share as costs reduce
    • Wind
      • Onshore
      • Offshore
    • Solar
    • Hydro
    • Post-2020 policy targets guide investment
    • A stronger carbon market and 2050 emissions goals
    • Utilities reorganise as conventional sources lose their shine
    • The changing role of fossil fuels
    • Generation output
      • Renewables and gas replace coal, oil and nuclear
      • Power delivers sustained emissions reductions
      • Coal's decline gathers pace as capacity retirements mount
    • Easing constraints give way to lower prices in coming years
    • Rising input costs support higher prices in the 2020s
    • Fuel & emissions costs
    • Renewables support, integration and cost
    • Electricity demand
    • New technologies - electricity storage and CCS

Tables and charts

This report includes 22 images and tables including:

  • Growth in renewable generation capacity and share of total power supply
  • Renewable electricity supply and targets
  • Renewable power supply by source and market share (EU 28)
  • European power supply by source
  • Electricity demand
  • European Power demand from EVs
  • Carbon intensity of EVs (2014)
  • Solar power capacity
  • Solar capacity and share in major EU markets
  • Hydro power capacity
  • Hydro capacity and share in major EU markets
  • Levelised costs of new-build technologies
  • Solar PV cost cases at varying capacity factors
  • European power prices – annual base load
  • Clean spark spreads
  • Clean dark spread (low efficiency)
  • Wind capacity
  • Wind capacity and share in major EU markets
  • Power supply mix: Europe & EU28
  • Power supply by source
  • Carbon intensity of power supply (ETS markets only)
  • Power supply change between forecasts

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Europe Power H1 17.xls

    XLS 2.33 MB

  • Document

    Europe power & renewables long-term outlook H1 2017: change isn't easy when you're a fossil

    PDF 495.93 KB

  • Document

    Europe power & renewables long-term outlook H1 2017: change isn't easy when you're a fossil

    ZIP 2.09 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 116.25 KB

  • Document


    PDF 118.88 KB

  • Document


    PDF 155.91 KB

  • Document


    PDF 92.02 KB

  • Document

    Supply-demand balances

    PDF 103.26 KB

  • Document


    PDF 147.98 KB

  • Document

    Risks and uncertainties

    PDF 86.21 KB