Commodity market report
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34 Pages

Europe power markets long-term outlook H2 2013

Europe power markets long-term outlook H2 2013

Report summary

The continuing pursuit of environmental targets presents a mounting challenge to Europe’s power markets and the companies operating in them.  With power demand suffering from the prolonged after-effects of economic recession and strong growth in incentive-driven renewable supplies, wholesale power prices are experiencing a period of significant weakness and are well below the level required to incentivise investments in conventional plant.  

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Europe power markets long-term outlook H2 2013 PDF - 1.58 MB 34 Pages, 7 Tables, 22 Figures
  • egaps pan europe power.xls XLS - 1.60 MB


The power sector is rapidly transitioning to a cleaner generation mix supported by technological and regulatory changes. Regional markets and structures are adjusting to these new realities with implications on fuel demand, commodity pricing and asset values.

This Power Markets Long Term Outlook report provides a detailed analysis of supply, demand and price fundamentals, as well as the regulatory and market issues affecting regional power markets.

Use this report to examine key issues driving regulatory and economic trends and identify future growth opportunities in regional power markets.

Wood Mackenzie's detailed analysis and reliable market forecasts give you a strong foundation for your investment decisions and corporate planning. Our experienced power research analysts use high-quality proprietary gas, coal and oil markets research to help you unlock power market fundamentals and identify future growth opportunities.

  • Executive summary
  • Demand
    • Industrial demand
    • Residential and commercial demand
  • Supply
    • Generation capacity
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Generation output
  • Risks and uncertainties
  • Economic outlook
    • Economic indicators (2000-2030)
    • Gas price forecast
  • Policy and regulation
    • Competition
      • Third Package implementation
      • Anti-trust enforcement
      • State aid and security of electricity supply
      • Carbon price background
      • Emissions trading scheme development
      • Market balance and the influence of supply-side adjustments
      • Emissions price forecast

In this report there are 29 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
  • Demand
    • Electricity demand
  • Supply
    • Growth in renewable generation capacity and share of total supply (with and without hydro)
    • Break-even costs of new-build technologies (LRMC)
    • Annual cost of new entry with wind cost reduction scenarios
    • Net capacity change (EU 27)
  • Supply-demand balances
    • European power supply by fuel
    • Carbon intensity of power supply (ETS markets only)
    • Power supply - change between forecasts
  • Risks and uncertainties
  • Economic outlook
    • Economic outlook: Table 1
    • Economic outlook: Image 1
    • Crude oil price outlook (Brent)
    • Oil product price outlook (NW Europe FOB)
    • Economic outlook: Image 4
    • Coal price forecast – cost and freight (CFR) ARA
    • Carbon (EUA) price forecast
  • Policy and regulation
    • Policy and regulation: Table 1
    • Policy and regulation: Table 2
    • Policy and regulation: Table 3
    • Policy and regulation: Table 4
    • Policy and regulation: Image 1
    • Policy and regulation: Image 2
    • Policy and regulation: Table 5
    • Policy and regulation: Table 6
    • Historical carbon (EUA) prices in ETS phase 1 (2005 to 07) and phase 2 (2008 to 12)
    • ETS emissions and cap (unadjusted allowance supply)
    • Annual allowance balance - before and after 900 MtCO2 back loading
    • Cost of fuel switching in European power and outturn EUA prices
    • Policy and regulation: Image 7
    • Policy and regulation: Image 8
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