Commodity market report
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16 Pages

Europe power markets long-term outlook H2 2015


Europe power markets long-term outlook H2 2015

Report summary

The continuing pursuit of environmental targets presents a mounting challenge to Europe’s power markets and the companies operating in them.  With power demand suffering from the prolonged after-effects of economic recession and strong growth in incentive-driven renewable supplies, wholesale power prices are experiencing a period of significant weakness and are well below the level required to incentivise investments in conventional plant.  

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Europe power markets long-term outlook H2 2015 PDF - 451.66 KB 16 Pages, 1 Tables, 10 Figures
  • Europe Power H2 2015.xls XLS - 4.35 MB

Description

The power sector is rapidly transitioning to a cleaner generation mix supported by technological and regulatory changes. Regional markets and structures are adjusting to these new realities with implications on fuel demand, commodity pricing and asset values.

This Power Markets Long Term Outlook report provides a detailed analysis of supply, demand and price fundamentals, as well as the regulatory and market issues affecting regional power markets.

Use this report to examine key issues driving regulatory and economic trends and identify future growth opportunities in regional power markets.

Wood Mackenzie's detailed analysis and reliable market forecasts give you a strong foundation for your investment decisions and corporate planning. Our experienced power research analysts use high-quality proprietary gas, coal and oil markets research to help you unlock power market fundamentals and identify future growth opportunities.

  • Executive summary
    • Power sector transition is critical to the delivery of EU climate-energy policy
    • Coal’s prospects deteriorate further as cost and policy pressures mount
    • In major markets power supply from gas will peak in the mid-2020s
    • The power sector rises to the challenge of renewable targets
    • The challenges of de-carbonising power
  • Demand
    • Slow recovery and continued weak demand in mature markets
    • Industrial transition provides contrasting growth prospects
    • Residential and commercial demand offset by efficiency improvements
    • Electric vehicles provide some support to demand
  • Supply
    • Generation capacity
      • Low carbon growth puts pressure on conventional technologies
      • Rising costs force the reassessment of support measures
    • Post-2020 policy targets guide investment
    • The changing role of conventional capacity
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Generation output
      • Gas replaces lost output from coal, oil and nuclear
      • Substantial decarbonisation as renewable growth continues
      • Coal's decline gathers pace as capacity retirements mount
  • Risks and uncertainties
    • Fuel & emissions cost uncertainty
    • Expansion of nuclear new-build
    • Renewable power costs and support – drivers or barriers to growth?

In this report there are 11 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • European power supply by source
    • Renewable electricity supply and targets
  • Demand
    • Electricity demand
  • Supply
    • Growth in renewable generation capacity and share of total supply
    • Cost of renewable support per unit of total power supply (2012)
    • Break-even costs of new-build technologies (LRMC)
    • Capacity market and strategic reserve arrangements in European power markets
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Power supply by source
    • Carbon intensity of power supply (ETS markets only)
    • Power supply - change between forecasts
  • Risks and uncertainties
    • Long-run economics of gas and coal generators – fuel and emissions cost parity
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