European gas and power short term price outlook (Q2 2015) Report

Insight 04 June 2015

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Report summary

European spot pricing dynamics will be driven by players' optimisation of Russian contract off-take and storage within "contestable demand". We forecast year-on-year demand growth, driven by a return to normal weather, higher exports to Ukraine and lower Dutch production We forecast a tightening LNG market over 2015, with lower European imports. But low contract price levels will prevent spot price upside during winter, and prices will trade at the high end of coal-gas switching levels.

Executive Summary
Introduction
European spot gas price (NBP) outlook
Gas fundamentals
- LNG imports (included in analysis)
- Other LNG imports (excluded from analysis)
- Indigenous production including Norway
- Non-Russia pipe imports
- European demand
- Ukraine call on gas through Europe
- UK power pricing and spreads
- Higher emissions prices balance the costs of coal and gas

Tables and charts

This report includes 8 images and tables including:

Chart 1: Russian (RU) imports and storage
Chart 2: NBP spot vs Russian (RU) contract
Chart 3: Identified European region

Chart 4: European net LNG imports
Chart 5: Contestable demand: European demand* vs indigenous production and non-Russian imports
European gas and power short term price outlook (Q2 2015): Image 6
Chart 7: UK base load power prices (GB market)
Chart 8: Clean spark and dark spreads – including Carbon Price Support (CPS) costs