Commodity market report
| |
45 Pages

Indonesia power and renewable markets long-term outlook 2016


Indonesia power and renewable markets long-term outlook 2016

Report summary

The Indonesian government continues to implement several measures to solve the looming power crisis. The  power price reform is on the right track, with PLN implementing monthly power tariffs adjustment for its customers from early 2015. It has resulted in lower electricity subsidies in 2015 and 2016. Presidential regulation no. 4/2016 was released in January 2016 to expedite the land acquisition and permitting processes. The 35 GW power programme progresses slowly. The government's 2019 completion target will not be achieved on time. Power shortages will happen in the next 2-3 years, but the commencement of new gas-fired power plants should help alleviate the problem. Gas' portion in power generation is expected to increase quickly, until coal takes over post 2020. The 2016 power development plan's aspiration to reduce coal's portion is favourable for gas in the long term, but will not change the fuel mix in the short to medium term.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Indonesia power and renewable markets long-term outlook 2016 PDF - 5.67 MB 45 Pages, 16 Tables, 47 Figures
  • Indonesia Power Data.xls XLS - 1.83 MB

Description

The power sector is rapidly transitioning to a cleaner generation mix supported by technological and regulatory changes. Regional markets and structures are adjusting to these new realities with implications on fuel demand, commodity pricing and asset values.

This Power Markets Long Term Outlook report provides a detailed analysis of supply, demand and price fundamentals, as well as the regulatory and market issues affecting regional power markets.

Use this report to examine key issues driving regulatory and economic trends and identify future growth opportunities in regional power markets.

Wood Mackenzie's detailed analysis and reliable market forecasts give you a strong foundation for your investment decisions and corporate planning. Our experienced power research analysts use high-quality proprietary gas, coal and oil markets research to help you unlock power market fundamentals and identify future growth opportunities.

  • Executive summary
    • Market overview
    • Progress of the 35 GW programme
    • Gas' portion to increase until coal takes over
    • Large-scale coal plants to enter the grid post 2020
    • Changes in the gas-fired IPP scheme
    • Electricity subsidy removal on the right track
    • Presidential Regulation no 4/2016 to expedite power projects
    • PDP 2016's renewable energy target favorable for gas
    • Data summary
  • Economic outlook
  • Policy and regulation
    • Key players
    • Indonesia power market value chain
      • Generation
      • Transmission
      • Distribution and retail
    • Energy policy
    • Power market regulation
      • Single-buyer model
      • PPA power purchase prices
      • Fuel mix
      • Renewables
      • Pricing
      • Land acquisition and licensing
  • Environmental policy and renewables
    • Policy
    • Renewables
    • COP21 INDC target
  • Supply
    • Indonesia capacity and reserve margin
      • West Kalimantan
      • East Central South Kalimantan
      • Sulawesi
      • Papua Timor Maluku Nusa Tenggara
      • Appendix
  • Costs
    • Break-even cost by technology
      • Short run marginal cost analysis
  • Infrastructure
    • Java-Bali power transmission infrastructure
      • Current power infrastructure in Java
      • Future power infrastructure in Java
    • Sumatra power transmission infrastructure
      • Current power infrastructure in Sumatra
      • Future power infrastructure in Sumatra
        • Possible link to Malaysia
      • Losses in Sumatra
  • Demand
    • Indonesia GDP growth and power sales
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Annual generation forecast
    • Plant utilisation (capacity factor)
    • Transmission utilisation across regions
      • Inter-regional transmission capacity
      • Inter-regional power transfers
  • Prices
    • End-user tariffs
    • Average annual system short-run costs
    • Break-even cost forecast
  • Risks and uncertainties
    • GDP sensitivity on gas demand (Java and Sumatra)
    • Coal sensitivity on gas demand
      • Java-Bali
      • Sumatra
      • Impacts of RUPTL 2016

In this report there are 63 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Executive summary: Image 1
    • Indonesia power available capacity
    • Indonesia power market balance
    • Indonesia gas demand by sector
    • Key changes to analysis from H2 2015 publication:
  • Economic outlook
    • GDP forecast - Indonesia
    • Economic indicators
  • Policy and regulation
    • Indonesia’s energy policy and regulatory structure
    • Policy and regulation: Image 2
    • Major energy legislation
    • PPA reference ceiling prices for IPP projects
    • Renewable Energy Selling Prices
    • Geothermal Selling Prices (Ministerial Regulation 17/2014)
    • Expedited electricity licencing and permitting (Presidential Regulation 4/2016)
  • Environmental policy and renewables
    • Environmental policy and renewables: Image 1
    • Environmental policy and renewables: Image 2
    • Renewable capacity by fuel
    • Renewable generation by fuel
    • Indonesia INDC target
  • Supply
    • Existing and Planned capacity with Peak Load
    • Indonesia capacity by plant type and reserve margin
    • Java Bali capacity by plant type and reserve margin
    • Sumatra capacity by plant type and reserve margin
    • Rest of Indonesia available capacity
    • Rest of Indonesia Reserve Margin
  • Costs
    • Break-even cost (LRMC) based on technology (2020 prices)
    • Java Bali - new plant economics by technology (LRMC) for new-build using real levelised prices (2020-2035)
    • Sumatra/Rest of Indonesia - New plant economics by technology (LRMC) for new-build using real levelised prices (2020-2035)
    • Java-Bali 2020 merit order
    • Java-Bali 2025 merit order
    • Sumatra 2020 merit order
    • Sumatra 2025 merit order
  • Infrastructure
    • Indonesia provincial map
    • Power infrastructure – West and Central Java
    • Power infrastructure – East Java and Bali
    • Power infrastructure – South Sumatra
    • Power infrastructure – Central Sumatra
    • Power infrastructure – Aceh and North Sumatra
  • Demand
    • Indonesia GDP growth and power sales growth
    • Indonesia power sales
    • Demand: Table 1
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Indonesia grid generation by fuel used
    • Java-Bali grid generation by fuel used
    • Sumatra grid generation by fuel used
    • Rest of Indonesia grid generation by fuel used
    • Java-Bali: Capacity factor by plant type (% utilisation)
    • Sumatra: Capacity factor by plant type (% utilisation)
    • Java-Bali: power transmission capacity across regions
    • Sumatra: power transmission capacity across regions
    • Java Bali: intra regional power transfers
    • Sumatra: intra regional power transfers
  • Prices
    • PLN’s average electricity prices*
    • PLN’s electricity prices by segments
    • Java-Bali : Average annual short-run generation costs
    • Sumatra : Average annual short-run generation costs
    • The government subsidy to PLN under the Public Service Obligation
    • Java-Bali and Sumatra break-even cost for power end-users
  • Risks and uncertainties
    • Risks and uncertainties: Image 1
    • Power demand sensitivity on gas
    • Java-Bali coal growth for high and low case
    • Java-Bali coal demand sensitivity on gas in power
    • Sumatra coal growth for high and low case
    • Sumatra coal demand sensitivity on gas in power
Requester's name : .............
Department : .............
Authoriser's Name : .............
Authoriser's signature : .............
Date : .............
Cost Centre : .............

Questions about this report?

Frequently Asked Questions

Mailenquiries@woodmac.com
  • Europe: +44 131 243 4699
  • Americas: +1 713 470 1900
  • Asia Pacific: +61 2 8224 8898
contact us

Why Wood Mackenzie?

Wood Mackenzie, a Verisk Analytics business, has been a trusted source of commercial intelligence for the world's natural resources sector for more than 40 years, empowering clients to make better strategic decisions with objective analysis and advice.

We work across every sector of oil, gas, power, renewables, chemicals, metals and mining, covering more than 150 countries. Our proprietary data and models are at the core of everything we do, ensuring our independent asset and company valuations are thoroughly robust and that we offer an accurate forward-looking view of economic indicators such as market supply, demand and price trends.

Our 500+ analysts are based in the regions they cover, cultivating an unrivalled depth of understanding to help clients accurately identify new opportunities, define their strategy and improve business performance.

At every stage, our teams readily collaborate and share their insight to provide an integrated perspective across entire industries. It is this unique and rigorous analytical approach that ensures we are recognised as the industry standard by the world’s most innovative organisations.