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Indonesia power and renewable markets long-term outlook 2016

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Report summary

The Indonesian government continues to implement several measures to solve the looming power crisis. The power price reform is on the right track with PLN implementing monthly power tariffs adjustment for its customers from early 2015. It has resulted in lower electricity subsidies in 2015 and 2016. Presidential regulation no. 4/2016 was released in January 2016 to expedite the land acquisition and permitting processes. The 35 GW power programme progresses slowly. The government's 2019 completion target will not be achieved on time. Power shortages will happen in the next 2 3 years but the commencement of new gas fired power plants should help alleviate the problem. Gas' portion in power generation is expected to increase quickly until coal takes over post 2020. The 2016 power development plan's aspiration to reduce coal's portion is favourable for gas in the long term but will not change the fuel mix in the short to medium term.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Indonesia Power Data.xls

    XLS 1.83 MB

  • Document

    Indonesia power and renewable markets long-term outlook 2016

    PDF 5.67 MB

  • Document

    Indonesia power and renewable markets long-term outlook 2016

    ZIP 6.03 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 3.65 MB

  • Document

    Economic outlook

    PDF 101.08 KB

  • Document

    Policy and regulation

    PDF 256.15 KB

  • Document

    Environmental policy and renewables

    PDF 91.22 KB

  • Document

    Supply

    PDF 155.14 KB

  • Document

    Costs

    PDF 209.28 KB

  • Document

    Infrastructure

    PDF 1.48 MB

  • Document

    Demand

    PDF 98.28 KB

  • Document

    Supply-demand balances

    PDF 147.04 KB

  • Document

    Prices

    PDF 148.21 KB

  • Document

    Risks and uncertainties

    PDF 104.79 KB

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Economic outlook
  • Policy and regulation
  • Environmental policy and renewables
  • Supply
  • Costs
  • Infrastructure
  • Demand
  • Supply-demand balances
  • Prices
  • Risks and uncertainties

Tables and charts

This report includes 63 images and tables including:

Images

  • Executive summary: Image 1
  • GDP forecast - Indonesia
  • Indonesia provincial map
  • Indonesia’s energy policy and regulatory structure
  • Policy and regulation: Image 2
  • Environmental policy and renewables: Image 1
  • Environmental policy and renewables: Image 2
  • Renewable capacity by fuel
  • Renewable generation by fuel
  • Indonesia INDC target
  • Existing and Planned capacity with Peak Load
  • Indonesia capacity by plant type and reserve margin
  • Java Bali capacity by plant type and reserve margin
  • Sumatra capacity by plant type and reserve margin
  • Rest of Indonesia available capacity
  • Rest of Indonesia Reserve Margin
  • Break-even cost (LRMC) based on technology (2020 prices)
  • Power infrastructure – South Sumatra
  • Indonesia GDP growth and power sales growth
  • Indonesia power sales
  • Indonesia grid generation by fuel used
  • Java-Bali grid generation by fuel used
  • Sumatra grid generation by fuel used
  • Rest of Indonesia grid generation by fuel used
  • Java-Bali: Capacity factor by plant type (% utilisation)
  • Sumatra: Capacity factor by plant type (% utilisation)
  • PLN’s average electricity prices*
  • PLN’s electricity prices by segments
  • Java-Bali : Average annual short-run generation costs
  • Sumatra : Average annual short-run generation costs
  • Java-Bali and Sumatra break-even cost for power end-users
  • Risks and uncertainties: Image 1
  • Power demand sensitivity on gas
  • Java-Bali 2020 merit order
  • Java-Bali 2025 merit order
  • Sumatra 2020 merit order
  • Sumatra 2025 merit order
  • Power infrastructure – West and Central Java
  • Power infrastructure – East Java and Bali
  • Power infrastructure – Central Sumatra
  • Power infrastructure – Aceh and North Sumatra
  • Java Bali: intra regional power transfers
  • Sumatra: intra regional power transfers
  • Java-Bali coal growth for high and low case
  • Java-Bali coal demand sensitivity on gas in power
  • Sumatra coal growth for high and low case
  • Sumatra coal demand sensitivity on gas in power

Tables

  • Economic indicators
  • Indonesia power available capacity
  • Indonesia power market balance
  • Indonesia gas demand by sector
  • Key changes to analysis from H2 2015 publication:
  • Major energy legislation
  • Java Bali - new plant economics by technology (LRMC) for new-build using real levelised prices (2020-2035)
  • Sumatra/Rest of Indonesia - New plant economics by technology (LRMC) for new-build using real levelised prices (2020-2035)
  • Demand: Table 1
  • The government subsidy to PLN under the Public Service Obligation
  • PPA reference ceiling prices for IPP projects
  • Renewable Energy Selling Prices
  • Geothermal Selling Prices (Ministerial Regulation 17/2014)
  • Expedited electricity licencing and permitting (Presidential Regulation 4/2016)
  • Java-Bali: power transmission capacity across regions
  • Sumatra: power transmission capacity across regions

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