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Indonesia power and renewable markets long-term outlook 2016

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13 July 2016

Indonesia power and renewable markets long-term outlook 2016

Report summary

The Indonesian government continues to implement several measures to solve the looming power crisis. The  power price reform is on the right track, with PLN implementing monthly power tariffs adjustment for its customers from early 2015. It has resulted in lower electricity subsidies in 2015 and 2016. Presidential regulation no. 4/2016 was released in January 2016 to expedite the land acquisition and permitting processes. The 35 GW power programme progresses slowly. The government's 2019 completion target will not be achieved on time. Power shortages will happen in the next 2-3 years, but the commencement of new gas-fired power plants should help alleviate the problem. Gas' portion in power generation is expected to increase quickly, until coal takes over post 2020. The 2016 power development plan's aspiration to reduce coal's portion is favourable for gas in the long term, but will not change the fuel mix in the short to medium term.

Table of contents

    • Market overview
    • Progress of the 35 GW programme
    • Gas' portion to increase until coal takes over
    • Large-scale coal plants to enter the grid post 2020
    • Changes in the gas-fired IPP scheme
    • Electricity subsidy removal on the right track
    • Presidential Regulation no 4/2016 to expedite power projects
    • PDP 2016's renewable energy target favorable for gas
    • Data summary
  • Economic outlook
    • Key players
    • Indonesia power market value chain
      • Generation
      • Transmission
      • Distribution and retail
    • Energy policy
    • Power market regulation
      • Single-buyer model
      • PPA power purchase prices
      • Fuel mix
      • Renewables
      • Pricing
      • Land acquisition and licensing
    • Policy
    • Renewables
    • COP21 INDC target
    • Indonesia capacity and reserve margin
      • West Kalimantan
      • East Central South Kalimantan
      • Sulawesi
      • Papua Timor Maluku Nusa Tenggara
      • Appendix
    • Break-even cost by technology
      • Short run marginal cost analysis
    • Java-Bali power transmission infrastructure
      • Current power infrastructure in Java
      • Future power infrastructure in Java
    • Sumatra power transmission infrastructure
      • Current power infrastructure in Sumatra
      • Future power infrastructure in Sumatra
        • Possible link to Malaysia
      • Losses in Sumatra
    • Indonesia GDP growth and power sales
    • Annual generation forecast
    • Plant utilisation (capacity factor)
    • Transmission utilisation across regions
      • Inter-regional transmission capacity
      • Inter-regional power transfers
    • End-user tariffs
    • Average annual system short-run costs
    • Break-even cost forecast
    • GDP sensitivity on gas demand (Java and Sumatra)
    • Coal sensitivity on gas demand
      • Java-Bali
      • Sumatra
      • Impacts of RUPTL 2016

Tables and charts

This report includes 63 images and tables including:

  • Executive summary: Image 1
  • GDP forecast - Indonesia
  • Economic indicators
  • Indonesia provincial map
  • Indonesia power available capacity
  • Indonesia power market balance
  • Indonesia gas demand by sector
  • Key changes to analysis from H2 2015 publication:
  • Indonesia’s energy policy and regulatory structure
  • Policy and regulation: Image 2
  • Major energy legislation
  • Environmental policy and renewables: Image 1
  • Environmental policy and renewables: Image 2
  • Renewable capacity by fuel
  • Renewable generation by fuel
  • Indonesia INDC target
  • Existing and Planned capacity with Peak Load
  • Indonesia capacity by plant type and reserve margin
  • Java Bali capacity by plant type and reserve margin
  • Sumatra capacity by plant type and reserve margin
  • Rest of Indonesia available capacity
  • Rest of Indonesia Reserve Margin
  • Break-even cost (LRMC) based on technology (2020 prices)
  • Java Bali - new plant economics by technology (LRMC) for new-build using real levelised prices (2020-2035)
  • Sumatra/Rest of Indonesia - New plant economics by technology (LRMC) for new-build using real levelised prices (2020-2035)
  • Power infrastructure – South Sumatra
  • Indonesia GDP growth and power sales growth
  • Indonesia power sales
  • Demand: Table 1
  • Indonesia grid generation by fuel used
  • Java-Bali grid generation by fuel used
  • Sumatra grid generation by fuel used
  • Rest of Indonesia grid generation by fuel used
  • Java-Bali: Capacity factor by plant type (% utilisation)
  • Sumatra: Capacity factor by plant type (% utilisation)
  • PLN’s average electricity prices*
  • PLN’s electricity prices by segments
  • Java-Bali : Average annual short-run generation costs
  • Sumatra : Average annual short-run generation costs
  • The government subsidy to PLN under the Public Service Obligation
  • Java-Bali and Sumatra break-even cost for power end-users
  • Risks and uncertainties: Image 1
  • Power demand sensitivity on gas
  • PPA reference ceiling prices for IPP projects
  • Renewable Energy Selling Prices
  • Geothermal Selling Prices (Ministerial Regulation 17/2014)
  • Expedited electricity licencing and permitting (Presidential Regulation 4/2016)
  • Java-Bali 2020 merit order
  • Java-Bali 2025 merit order
  • Sumatra 2020 merit order
  • Sumatra 2025 merit order
  • Power infrastructure – West and Central Java
  • Power infrastructure – East Java and Bali
  • Power infrastructure – Central Sumatra
  • Power infrastructure – Aceh and North Sumatra
  • Java-Bali: power transmission capacity across regions
  • Sumatra: power transmission capacity across regions
  • Java Bali: intra regional power transfers
  • Sumatra: intra regional power transfers
  • Java-Bali coal growth for high and low case
  • Java-Bali coal demand sensitivity on gas in power
  • Sumatra coal growth for high and low case
  • Sumatra coal demand sensitivity on gas in power

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Indonesia Power Data.xls

    XLS 1.83 MB

  • Document

    Indonesia power and renewable markets long-term outlook 2016

    PDF 5.67 MB

  • Document

    Indonesia power and renewable markets long-term outlook 2016

    ZIP 6.03 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 3.65 MB

  • Document

    Economic outlook

    PDF 101.08 KB

  • Document

    Policy and regulation

    PDF 256.15 KB

  • Document

    Environmental policy and renewables

    PDF 91.22 KB

  • Document

    Supply

    PDF 155.14 KB

  • Document

    Costs

    PDF 209.28 KB

  • Document

    Infrastructure

    PDF 1.48 MB

  • Document

    Demand

    PDF 98.28 KB

  • Document

    Supply-demand balances

    PDF 147.04 KB

  • Document

    Prices

    PDF 148.21 KB

  • Document

    Risks and uncertainties

    PDF 104.79 KB

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