Commodity market report

Indonesia power and renewable markets long-term outlook 2017

Loading current market price

Get this report

Loading current market price

Get this report as part of a subscription

Enquire about Subscriptions

Already have subscription? Sign In

Further information

Pay by Invoice or Credit Card FAQs

Contact us

Contact us about this report

Report summary

The Indonesian government continues to implement several policies to solve the power crisis and improve the performance of the power sector. However the recent regulations have caused dismay among the industry players. Project terms are generally becoming less attractive following the recent revisions of the power purchase agreements (PPAs). Meanwhile the new renewable energy price benchmark will make several projects uneconomic. We have maintained our forecast that coal will continue to dominate the fuel mix with gas in second place. On a brighter note the electricity subsidy removal has been quite successful and the measure was extended to a wider consumer group.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Indonesia Power Data.xls

    XLS 2.18 MB

  • Document

    Indonesia power and renewable markets long-term outlook 2017

    PDF 3.14 MB

  • Document

    Indonesia power and renewable markets long-term outlook 2017

    ZIP 3.57 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 1.11 MB

  • Document

    Economic outlook

    PDF 96.01 KB

  • Document

    Policy and regulation

    PDF 263.78 KB

  • Document

    Environmental policy and renewables

    PDF 102.71 KB

  • Document

    Supply

    PDF 160.13 KB

  • Document

    Costs

    PDF 206.80 KB

  • Document

    Infrastructure

    PDF 1.48 MB

  • Document

    Demand

    PDF 97.70 KB

  • Document

    Supply-demand balances

    PDF 147.25 KB

  • Document

    Prices

    PDF 148.51 KB

  • Document

    Risks and uncertainties

    PDF 104.67 KB

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Economic outlook
  • Policy and regulation
  • Environmental policy and renewables
  • Supply
  • Costs
  • Infrastructure
  • Demand
  • Supply-demand balances
  • Prices
  • Risks and uncertainties

Tables and charts

This report includes 65 images and tables including:

Images

  • Executive summary: Image 1
  • GDP forecast - Indonesia
  • Indonesia provincial map
  • Executive summary: Image 2
  • Indonesia’s energy policy and regulatory structure
  • Policy and regulation: Image 2
  • Environmental policy and renewables: Image 1
  • Generation mix: renewables vs non-renewables
  • Renewable capacity by fuel
  • Renewable generation by fuel
  • Indonesia INDC target
  • Existing and planned capacity with peak load
  • Indonesia capacity by plant type and reserve margin
  • Java Bali capacity by plant type and reserve margin
  • Sumatra capacity by plant type and reserve margin
  • Rest of Indonesia available capacity
  • Rest of Indonesia reserve margin
  • Break-even cost (LRMC) based on technology (2020 prices)
  • Power infrastructure – South Sumatra
  • Indonesia GDP growth and power sales growth
  • Indonesia power sales
  • Indonesia grid generation by fuel used
  • Java-Bali grid generation by fuel used
  • Sumatra grid generation by fuel used
  • Rest of Indonesia grid generation by fuel used
  • Java-Bali: Capacity factor by plant type (% utilisation)
  • Sumatra: Capacity factor by plant type (% utilisation)
  • PLN’s average electricity prices*
  • PLN’s electricity prices by segments
  • Java-Bali : average annual short-run generation costs
  • Sumatra : average annual short-run generation costs
  • Risks and uncertainties: Image 1
  • Power demand sensitivity on gas
  • Java-Bali 2020 merit order
  • Java-Bali 2025 merit order
  • Sumatra 2020 merit order
  • Sumatra 2025 merit order
  • Power infrastructure – West and Central Java
  • Power infrastructure – East Java and Bali
  • Power infrastructure – Central Sumatra
  • Power infrastructure – Aceh and North Sumatra
  • Java Bali: intra-regional power transfers
  • Sumatra: intra-regional power transfers
  • Prices: Image 5
  • Java-Bali coal growth for high and low case
  • Java-Bali coal demand sensitivity on gas in power
  • Sumatra coal growth for high and low case
  • Sumatra coal demand sensitivity on gas in power

Tables

  • Economic indicators
  • Indonesia power available capacity
  • Indonesia power market balance
  • Indonesia gas demand by sector
  • Key changes to analysis from H2 2016 publication:
  • Major energy legislation
  • Java Bali - new plant economics by technology (LRMC) for new-build using real levelised prices (2020-2035)
  • Sumatra/rest of Indonesia - new plant economics by technology (LRMC) for new-build using real levelised prices (2020-2035)
  • Demand: Table 1
  • The government subsidy to PLN under the Public Service Obligation
  • PPA reference ceiling prices for IPP projects
  • Renewable energy selling prices*
  • Geothermal selling prices (Ministerial Regulation 17/2014)*
  • Renewable energy selling prices based on MEMR Regulation 12/2017
  • Expedited electricity licensing and permitting (Presidential Regulation 4/2016)
  • Java-Bali: power transmission capacity across regions
  • Sumatra: power transmission capacity across regions

Questions about this report?

  • Europe:
    +44 131 243 4699
  • Americas:
    +1 713 470 1900
  • Asia Pacific:
    +61 2 8224 8898