Indonesia power and renewables markets long-term outlook 2019 Report

Commodity Market Report 31 July 2019

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Report summary

Key report themes: 1) RUPTL reduces demand growth forecast to 6.42%, maintains renewables target of at least 23% of the energy mix by 2025 and takes advantage of wellhead natural gas. 2) New gas discovery at the Sakakemang PSC onshore South Sumatra. 3) Mixed news on the renewables front with the government announced to provide subsidy for geothermal projects on one hand and about 24 renewables projects risk termination on another hand.

Key developments
- RUPTL reduces demand growth forecast, maintains renewables target and takes advantage of wellhead natural gas
- New gas discovery at the Sakakemang PSC onshore South Sumatra
- Regional map
Data summary
Key players
- Key offices
- Generation
- Transmission
- Distribution and retail
Energy policy
Power market regulation
- Single-buyer model
- PPA prices
- Fuel mix
- Renewables
- Land acquisition and licensing
Policy
Renewables
COP21 INDC target
Indonesia capacity and reserve margin
Java capacity and reserve margin
- West Java
- Central Java
- East Java
- Bali
Sumatra capacity and reserve margin
- Aceh
- North Sumatra
- Central Sumatra
- South Sumatra
- Batam
Sumatra capacity and reserve margin
- Aceh
- North Sumatra
- Central Sumatra
- South Sumatra
- Batam
West Kalimantan
East Central South Kalimantan
Sulawesi
Papua, Timor, Maluku and Nusa Tenggara
Appendix
Breakeven cost by technology
- Short-run marginal cost analysis
Java-Bali power transmission infrastructure
- Current power infrastructure in Java
Future power infrastructure in Java
- West Java transmission expansion
- South Sumatra to West Java
- East-Central Java to Bali
- Losses in Java
Sumatra power transmission infrastructure
Current power infrastructure in Sumatra
Future power infrastructure in Sumatra
- New trans-Sumatra transmission lines
- Possible link to Malaysia
- Losses in Sumatra
Annual generation forecast
Plant utilisation (capacity factor)
Transmission utilisation across regions
- Inter-regional transmission capacity
Inter-regional power transfers
End-user tariffs
Average annual system short-run costs
Breakeven cost forecast
GDP sensitivity on gas demand (Java and Sumatra)
Coal sensitivity on gas demand
- Java-Bali
Sumatra

Tables and charts

This report includes 63 images and tables including:

Indonesia power available capacity
Indonesia power market balance
Indonesia gas demand by sector

Key changes to analysis from H2 2018 publication
GDP forecast - Indonesia
Major energy legislation
Capacity mix: renewables vs non-renewables
Generation mix: renewables vs non-renewables
Renewable capacity by fuel
Renewable generation by fuel
Indonesia INDC target
Existing and planned capacity with peak load
Indonesia capacity by plant type and reserve margin
Breakeven cost (LRMC) based on technology (2020 prices)
Java Bali – new plant economics by technology (LRMC) for new-build using real levelised prices (2020-2045)
Sumatra/rest of Indonesia – new plant economics by technology (LRMC) for new-build using real levelised prices (2020-2045)
Power infrastructure – South Sumatra
Indonesia grid generation by fuel used
Java-Bali grid generation by fuel used
Sumatra grid generation by fuel used
Rest of Indonesia grid generation by fuel used
Java-Bali: capacity factor by plant type (% utilisation)
Sumatra: capacity factor by plant type (% utilisation)
Java Bali: intra-regional power transfers
Sumatra: intra-regional power transfers
PLN's average electricity prices*
PLN's electricity prices by segments
Java-Bali : average annual short-run generation costs
Sumatra : average annual short-run generation costs
Government subsidy to PLN under the Public Service Obligation
Java-Bali and Sumatra breakeven cost for power end users*
GDP growth assumptions for high and low case
Power demand sensitivity on gas
Sumatra coal growth for high and low case
Sumatra coal demand sensitivity on gas in power
Regional map
Indonesia’s energy policy and regulatory structure
Indonesia power market value chain
PPA reference ceiling prices for IPP projects
Renewable energy selling prices based on MEMR Regulation 50/2017
Expedited electricity licensing and permitting (presidential regulation 4/2016)
Java Bali capacity by plant type and reserve margin
Sumatra capacity by plant type and reserve margin
Rest of Indonesia available capacity
Rest of Indonesia reserve margin
Java-Bali 2020 merit order
Java-Bali 2040 merit order
Java-Bali 2030 merit order
Sumatra 2020 merit order
Sumatra 2030 merit order
Sumatra 2040 merit order
Indonesia provincial map
Power infrastructure – West and Central Java
Power infrastructure – East Java and Bali
Power infrastructure – Central Sumatra
Power infrastructure – Aceh and North Sumatra
Indonesia GDP growth and power sales growth
Indonesia power sales
Java-Bali: power transmission capacity across regions
Sumatra: power transmission capacity across regions
Java-Bali coal growth for high and low case
Java-Bali coal demand sensitivity on gas in power