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Indonesia power markets long-term full report 2015

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20 January 2016

Indonesia power markets long-term full report 2015

Report summary

This is the full report of the Indonesian power markets long-term outlook. The new Indonesian government has taken several measures to solve the looming power crisis and improve the performance of the power sector. The 35 GW programme was launched in January 2015, followed by the issuance of supporting regulations such as additional procurement flexibilities and reference ceiling prices for IPP projects. The power price reform continues, with PLN implementing monthly power tariffs adjustment for its customers from early 2015. But several challenges remain, and could continue hamper the power project development, including land matters, financial and resource constraints, fuel supply/infrastructure, bureaucracy and permitting complexities.

Table of contents

    • The launch of the 35 GW programme
    • New procurement flexibilities for IPPs
    • Electricity subsidy removal
    • Update on key coal projects
    • Potential upside for LNG in the near term
    • Data summary
  • Economic outlook
    • In this section
    • Generation
    • Transmission
    • Distribution and retail
    • Single-buyer model
    • PPA power purchase prices
    • Fuel mix
    • Renewables
    • Pricing
    • Land acquisition
    • In this section
      • West Kalimantan
      • East Central South Kalimantan
      • Sulawesi
      • Papua Timor Maluku Nusa Tenggara
      • Appendix
    • In this section
    • Break-even cost by technology
      • Screening curves and sensitivity on gas break-even prices by technology
    • Short run marginal cost analysis
    • In this section
    • Java-Bali power transmission infrastructure
      • Current power infrastructure in Java
      • Future power infrastructure in Java
    • Sumatra power transmission infrastructure
      • Current power infrastructure in Sumatra
      • Future power infrastructure in Sumatra
        • Possible link to Malaysia
      • Losses in Sumatra
    • Indonesia GDP growth and power sales
    • In this section
    • Annual generation forecast
    • Plant utilisation (capacity factor)
    • Transmission utilisation across regions
      • Inter-regional transmission capacity
      • Inter-regional power transfers
    • In this section
    • End-user tariffs
    • Average annual system short-run cost
    • Break-even cost forecast
    • GDP sensitivity on gas demand (Java and Sumatra)
    • Coal sensitivity on gas demand
      • Java-Bali
      • Sumatra

Tables and charts

This report includes 56 images and tables including:

  • GDP forecast - Indonesia
  • Economic indicators
  • Indonesia provincial map
  • Indonesia power available capacity
  • Indonesia power market balance
  • Indonesia gas demand by sector
  • Key changes to analysis from H2 2014 publication:
  • Indonesia’s energy policy and regulatory structure
  • Policy and regulation: Image 2
  • Policy and regulation: Table 1
  • PPA reference ceiling prices for IPP projects
  • Renewable Energy Selling Prices
  • Geothermal Selling Prices (Ministerial Regulation 17/2014)
  • Existing and Planned capacity with Peak Load
  • Indonesia capacity by plant type and reserve margin
  • Java Bali capacity by plant type and reserve margin
  • Sumatra capacity by plant type and reserve margin
  • Rest of Indonesia available capacity
  • Rest of Indonesia Reserve Margin
  • Break-even cost (LRMC) based on technology (2020 prices)
  • Java Bali - new plant economics by technology (LRMC) for new-build using real levelised 2015 prices
  • Sumatra/Rest of Indonesia - New plant economics by technology (LRMC) for new-build using real levelised 2015 prices
  • Java-Bali 2015 merit order
  • Java-Bali 2025 merit order
  • Sumatra 2015 merit order
  • Sumatra 2025 merit order
  • Power infrastructure – South Sumatra
  • Indonesia GDP growth and power sales growth
  • Indonesia power sales
  • Demand: Table 1
  • Indonesia grid generation by fuel used
  • Java-Bali grid generation by fuel used
  • Sumatra grid generation by fuel used
  • Rest of Indonesia grid generation by fuel used
  • Java-Bali: Capacity factor by plant type (% utilisation)
  • Sumatra: Capacity factor by plant type (% utilisation)
  • PLN’s average electricity prices
  • PLN’s electricity prices by segments
  • Java-Bali : Average annual short-run generation costs
  • Sumatra : Average annual short-run generation costs
  • The government subsidy to PLN under the Public Service Obligation
  • Java-Bali and Sumatra break-even cost for power end-users
  • Risks and uncertainties: Image 1
  • Power demand sensitivity on gas
  • Power infrastructure – West and Central Java
  • Power infrastructure – East Java and Bali
  • Power infrastructure – Central Sumatra
  • Power infrastructure – Aceh and North Sumatra
  • Java-Bali: power transmission capacity across regions
  • Sumatra: power transmission capacity across regions
  • Java Bali: intra regional power transfers
  • Sumatra: intra regional power transfers
  • Java-Bali coal growth for high and low case
  • Java-Bali coal demand sensitivity on gas in power
  • Sumatra coal growth for high and low case
  • Sumatra coal demand sensitivity on gas in power

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Indonesia Power Data.xls

    XLS 1.78 MB

  • Document

    Indonesia power markets long-term full report 2015

    PDF 1.55 MB

  • Document

    Indonesia power markets long-term full report 2015

    ZIP 1.98 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 108.87 KB

  • Document

    Economic outlook

    PDF 94.93 KB

  • Document

    Policy and regulation

    PDF 251.07 KB

  • Document

    Supply

    PDF 155.40 KB

  • Document

    Costs

    PDF 206.21 KB

  • Document

    Infrastructure

    PDF 965.65 KB

  • Document

    Demand

    PDF 98.55 KB

  • Document

    Supply-demand balances

    PDF 146.13 KB

  • Document

    Prices

    PDF 142.54 KB

  • Document

    Risks and uncertainties

    PDF 101.72 KB

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