Commodity market report
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35 Pages

Indonesia power markets long-term full report H1 2014


Indonesia power markets long-term full report H1 2014

Report summary

This is the full report for the Indonesia power markets long-term summary H1 2014. With the projected demand growth averaging more than 7% to 2025, we project that Java Bali, the main demand centre in Indonesia, will have a power deficit of about 2000 MW by 2017. Many other parts of country are heading towards impending power shortages due to project delays.


What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Indonesia power markets long-term full report H1 2014 PDF - 1.18 MB 35 Pages, 13 Tables, 40 Figures
  • Indonesia Power Data.xls XLS - 1.55 MB

Description

The power sector is rapidly transitioning to a cleaner generation mix supported by technological and regulatory changes. Regional markets and structures are adjusting to these new realities with implications on fuel demand, commodity pricing and asset values.

This Power Markets Long Term Outlook report provides a detailed analysis of supply, demand and price fundamentals, as well as the regulatory and market issues affecting regional power markets.

Use this report to examine key issues driving regulatory and economic trends and identify future growth opportunities in regional power markets.

Wood Mackenzie's detailed analysis and reliable market forecasts give you a strong foundation for your investment decisions and corporate planning. Our experienced power research analysts use high-quality proprietary gas, coal and oil markets research to help you unlock power market fundamentals and identify future growth opportunities.

  • Executive summary
    • Data summary
    • Market Overview
      • Major project delays
      • Potential upside for LNG and diesel in the next few years
      • Push to move power tariff closer to the cost of generation
  • Economic outlook
    • GDP forecast - Indonesia
  • Policy and regulation
    • In this section
    • Generation
    • Transmission
    • Distribution and retail
    • Single-buyer model
    • Fuel mix
    • Renewables
    • Pricing
    • Land acquisition
  • Supply
    • In this section
    • West Java
    • Central Java
    • East Java
    • Bali
    • North Sumatra
    • Central Sumatra
    • South Sumatra
    • Batam
    • Rest of Indonesia
    • West Kalimantan
    • East Central South Kalimantan
    • Sulawesi
    • Papua Timor Maluku Nusa Tenggara
    • Appendix
  • Costs
    • In this section
    • Breakeven cost by technology
      • Screening curves and sensitivity on gas breakeven prices by technology
    • Short run marginal cost analysis
  • Infrastructure
    • In this section
    • Java-Bali power transmission infrastructure
      • Current power infrastructure in Java
      • Future power infrastructure in Java
        • Power from South Sumatra to West Java
        • East-Central Java to Bali
        • Losses in Java
        • Sumatra power transmission infrastructure
          • Current power infrastructure in Sumatra
          • Future power infrastructure in Sumatra
            • Possible link to Malaysia
          • Losses in Sumatra
  • Demand
    • Indonesia GDP growth and power sales
  • Supply-demand balances
    • In this section
      • Annual generation forecast
    • Plant utilisation (capacity factor)
    • Transmission utilisation across regions
      • Inter-region transmission capacity
      • Regional power transfers
  • Prices
    • In this section
    • End-user tariffs
    • Average annual system short-run cost
    • Breakeven cost forecast
  • Risks and uncertainties
    • GDP sensitivity on gas demand (Java and Sumatra)
    • Coal sensitivity on gas demand
      • Java-Bali
      • Sumatra

In this report there are 53 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Indonesia power available capacity
    • Indonesia power market balance
    • Executive summary: Table 3
    • Key changes to analysis from H1 2013 publication:
  • Economic outlook
    • Economic outlook: Image 1
    • Economic outlook: Table 1
  • Policy and regulation
    • Indonesia’s energy policy and regulatory structure
    • Policy and regulation: Image 2
    • Policy and regulation: Table 1
    • Renewable Energy Selling Price
    • Geothermal Selling Price (Ministerial Regulation 22/2012)
  • Supply
    • Supply: Image 1
    • Supply: Image 2
    • Supply: Image 3
    • Supply: Image 4
    • Supply: Image 5
    • Supply: Image 6
  • Costs
    • Breakeven cost (LRMC) based on technology (2020 prices)
    • Java Bali - new plant economics by technology (LRMC) for new-build using real levelised 2014 prices
    • Sumatra/Rest of Indonesia - New plant economics by technology (LRMC) for new-build using real levelised 2013 prices
    • Costs: Image 2
    • Costs: Image 3
    • Costs: Image 4
    • Costs: Image 5
  • Infrastructure
    • Power infrastructure – West and Central Java
    • Power infrastructure – East Java and Bali
    • Power infrastructure – South Sumatra
    • Power infrastructure – Central Sumatra
    • Power infrastructure – Aceh and North Sumatra
  • Demand
    • Demand: Image 1
    • Demand: Image 2
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 1
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 2
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 3
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 4
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 5
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 6
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 1
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 2
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 7
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 8
  • Prices
    • Prices: Image 1
    • Prices: Image 2
    • Prices: Image 3
    • Prices: Image 4
    • The government subsidy to PLN under the Public Service Obligation
    • Java-Bali and Sumatra breakeven cost for power end-users
  • Risks and uncertainties
    • Risks and uncertainties: Image 1
    • Risks and uncertainties: Image 2
    • Risks and uncertainties: Image 3
    • Risks and uncertainties: Image 4
    • Risks and uncertainties: Image 5
    • Risks and uncertainties: Image 6
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