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37 Pages

Indonesia power markets long-term full report H2 2014


Indonesia power markets long-term full report H2 2014

Report summary

This is the full report for the Indonesia power markets long-term summary H 2014.

The two new regulations approved by the Ministry early this year signify the priority given by the new government to the energy sector amidst the country’s looming power capacity shortage. However, with the existing difficulties and the lead time required for project development, the new regulations will, at best, soften the impact of power shortages.


What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Indonesia power markets long-term full report H2 2014 PDF - 1.17 MB 37 Pages, 14 Tables, 38 Figures
  • Indonesia Power Data.xls XLS - 1.63 MB

Description

The power sector is rapidly transitioning to a cleaner generation mix supported by technological and regulatory changes. Regional markets and structures are adjusting to these new realities with implications on fuel demand, commodity pricing and asset values.

This Power Markets Long Term Outlook report provides a detailed analysis of supply, demand and price fundamentals, as well as the regulatory and market issues affecting regional power markets.

Use this report to examine key issues driving regulatory and economic trends and identify future growth opportunities in regional power markets.

Wood Mackenzie's detailed analysis and reliable market forecasts give you a strong foundation for your investment decisions and corporate planning. Our experienced power research analysts use high-quality proprietary gas, coal and oil markets research to help you unlock power market fundamentals and identify future growth opportunities.

  • Executive summary
    • Data summary
    • Market Overview
      • Two new regulations approved on 12 January 2015
      • Major project delays
      • Potential upside for LNG in the next few years
      • New decree removes subsidies for majority of consumers
  • Economic outlook
  • Policy and regulation
    • In this section
    • Generation
    • Transmission
    • Distribution and retail
    • Single-buyer model
    • PPA power purchasing price
    • Fuel mix
    • Renewables
    • Pricing
    • Land acquisition
  • Supply
    • In this section
    • West Java
    • Central Java
    • East Java
    • Bali
    • North Sumatra
    • Central Sumatra
    • South Sumatra
    • Batam
    • Rest of Indonesia
    • West Kalimantan
    • East Central South Kalimantan
    • Sulawesi
    • Papua Timor Maluku Nusa Tenggara
    • Appendix
  • Costs
    • In this section
    • Breakeven cost by technology
      • Screening curves and sensitivity on gas breakeven prices by technology
    • Short run marginal cost analysis
  • Infrastructure
    • In this section
    • Java-Bali power transmission infrastructure
      • Current power infrastructure in Java
      • Future power infrastructure in Java
        • Power from South Sumatra to West Java
        • East-Central Java to Bali
        • Losses in Java
        • Sumatra power transmission infrastructure
          • Current power infrastructure in Sumatra
          • Future power infrastructure in Sumatra
            • Possible link to Malaysia
          • Losses in Sumatra
  • Demand
    • Indonesia GDP growth and power sales
  • Supply-demand balances
    • In this section
      • Annual generation forecast
    • Plant utilisation (capacity factor)
    • Transmission utilisation across regions
      • Inter-region transmission capacity
      • Regional power transfers
  • Prices
    • In this section
    • End-user tariffs
    • Average annual system short-run cost
    • Breakeven cost forecast
  • Risks and uncertainties
    • GDP sensitivity on gas demand (Java and Sumatra)
    • Coal sensitivity on gas demand
      • Java-Bali
      • Sumatra

In this report there are 52 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Indonesia power available capacity
    • Indonesia power market balance
    • Indonesia gas demand by sector
    • Key changes to analysis from H1 2014 publication:
  • Economic outlook
    • GDP forecast - Indonesia
    • Economic indicators
  • Policy and regulation
    • Indonesia’s energy policy and regulatory structure
    • Indonesia power market value chain
    • Major energy legislation
    • Renewable Energy Selling Price
    • Geothermal Selling Price (Ministerial Regulation 17/2014)
  • Supply
    • Existing and Planned capacity with Peak Load
    • Indonesia capacity by plant type and reserve margin
    • Java Bali capacity by plant type and reserve margin
    • Sumatra capacity by plant type and reserve margin
    • Rest of Indonesia available capacity
    • Rest of Indonesia Reserve Margin
  • Costs
    • Breakeven cost (LRMC) based on technology (2020 prices)
    • Java Bali - new plant economics by technology (LRMC) for new-build using real levelised 2014 prices
    • Sumatra/Rest of Indonesia - New plant economics by technology (LRMC) for new-build using real levelised 2013 prices
    • Java-Bali 2015 merit order
    • Java-Bali 2025 merit order
    • Sumatra 2015 merit order
    • Sumatra 2025 merit order
  • Infrastructure
    • Power infrastructure – West and Central Java
    • Power infrastructure – East Java and Bali
    • Power infrastructure – South Sumatra
    • Power infrastructure – Central Sumatra
    • Power infrastructure – Aceh and North Sumatra
  • Demand
    • Demand: Table 1
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Indonesia grid generation by fuel used
    • Java-Bali grid generation by fuel used
    • Sumatra grid generation by fuel used
    • Rest of Indonesia grid generation by fuel used
    • Java-Bali: Capacity factor by plant type (% utilisation)
    • Sumatra: Capacity factor by plant type (% utilisation)
    • Java-Bali: power transmission capacity across regions
    • Sumatra: power transmission capacity across regions
    • Java Bali : intra regional power transfers
    • Sumatra : intra regional power transfers
  • Prices
    • PLN’s electricity prices
    • PLN’s average electricity prices
    • Java-Bali : Average annual short term generation costs
    • Sumatra : Average annual short term generation costs
    • The government subsidy to PLN under the Public Service Obligation
    • Java-Bali and Sumatra breakeven cost for power end-users
  • Risks and uncertainties
    • GDP growth assumptions for high and low case
    • Power demand sensitivity on gas
    • Java-Bali coal growth for high and low case
    • Java-Bali coal demand sensitivity on gas in power
    • Sumatra coal growth for high and low case
    • Sumatra coal demand sensitivity on gas in power
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