Commodity Market Report

Late season surprises:  North America power and renewables short term outlook September 2017

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13 October 2017

Late season surprises:  North America power and renewables short term outlook September 2017

Report summary

Although September proved to be another mild month keeping the forecast for natural gas prices in check, power prices surprised to the upside in a number of markets over the past few weeks. Power prices saw uplift during the last part of September in PJM and the Northeast while ERCOT Houston saw prices spike earlier this week.  Still, lower forecast natural gas prices and power loads this month keep pressure on power prices over the outlook.  

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
    • Winter: emerging La Nina forecast
    • 2018: Haynesville, power demand look bearish, but how many more rigs will be dropped?
    • Despite losses in demand, renewables continue to build out
      • Demand
      • Supply
      • Nuclear maintenance
    • East and ERCOT
      • Generation
      • Prices and heat rates
    • WECC
      • Supply and demand
      • Nuclear maintenance
      • Prices and generation
  • Scenario Overview

Tables and charts

This report includes 7 images and tables including:

  • Figure 7: North American power generation balances and fuel prices
  • Figure 1: Eastern markets fall 2017 nuclear availability
  • Figure 2: Changes in Eastern power market fundamentals (Relative to August 2017 STO)
  • Figure 3: Relative changes in Eastern markets’ power price metrics (Relative to August 2017 STO)
  • Figure 4: Western markets fall 2017 nuclear availability
  • Figure 5: Changes in WECC power market fundamentals (Relative to August 2017 STO)
  • Figure 6: Relative changes in WECC markets’ power price metrics (Relative to August 2017 STO)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    201709 STO Base Case Delivered Fuel Prices Nominal 09 29 2017.xlsx

    XLSX 137.99 KB

  • Document

    201709 STO Base Case Delivered Fuel Prices Real 09 29 2017.xlsx

    XLSX 138.16 KB

  • Document

    201709 STO Base Case Load Forecast 09 29 2017.xlsx

    XLSX 2.77 MB

  • Document

    201709 STO Base Case Prices Sparks IHR Darks Nominal 09 29 2017.xlsx

    XLSX 1.86 MB

  • Document

    201709 STO Base Case Prices Sparks IHR Darks Real 09 29 2017.xlsx

    XLSX 3.59 MB

  • Document

    201709 STO Base Case Short Term Fundamentals 09 29 2017.xlsx

    XLSX 1.23 MB

  • Document

    Late season surprises: North America power and renewables short term outlook September 2017

    PDF 1010.14 KB

  • Document

    Late season surprises: North America power and renewables short term outlook September 2017

    ZIP 10.04 MB

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