Commodity Market Report

Limited summer growth: Midwest power & renewables short-term outlook June 2017

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Report summary

Over the course of the last year, 19 GW of new renewables have been added to the grid, along with 9.6 GW of new gas capacity. Regionally, most of the new wind to come online in the last year has been sited in ERCOT, SPP, and MISO, while  most of the new solar has been sited in the WECC and the Southeast.  In terms of output, while total generation looks to be less than 2016 in July, August looks to improve on year over year gains in power demand.   Given the increasing renewable build over the last year, a particularly strong hydro season, and higher prices for natural gas this summer versus last, generation from gas is expected to decline relative to last summer. Coal picks up some of this market share, although is limited by the increasing renewable penetration as well. Still, relative to our previous outlook, lower natural gas prices overall bring prices down in many markets on average, while heat rates move up on the overall higher share of natural gas generation through 2018.    

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    201706 STO Base Case Delivered Fuel Prices Nominal Midwest 6 30 2017.xlsx

    XLSX 119.66 KB

  • Document

    201706 STO Base Case Delivered Fuel Prices Real Midwest 6 30 2017.xlsx

    XLSX 119.75 KB

  • Document

    201706 STO Base Case Load Forecast Midwest 6 30 2017.xlsx

    XLSX 2.58 MB

  • Document

    201706 STO Base Case Prices Sparks IHR Darks Nominal Midwest 6 30 2017.xlsx

    XLSX 970.93 KB

  • Document

    201706 STO Base Case Prices Sparks IHR Darks Real Midwest 6 30 2017.xlsx

    XLSX 2.67 MB

  • Document

    201706 STO Base Case Short Term Fundamentals Midwest 6 30 2017.xlsx

    XLSX 373.42 KB

  • Document

    Limited summer growth: Midwest power & renewables short-term outlook June 2017

    PDF 346.64 KB

  • Document

    Limited summer growth: Midwest power & renewables short-term outlook June 2017

    ZIP 6.51 MB

Table of contents

Tables and charts

This report includes 5 images and tables including:

Tables

  • Figure 5: North American power generation balances and fuel prices

Images

  • Figure 1: Changes in Eastern power market fundamentals (Relative to April 2017 STO)
  • Figure 2: Relative changes in Eastern markets’ power price metrics (Relative to April 2017 STO)
  • Figure 3: Changes in WECC power market fundamentals (Relative to April 2017 STO)
  • Figure 4: Relative changes in WECC markets’ power price metrics (Relative to April 2017 STO)

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