Commodity market report

Limited summer growth: Northeast power & renewables short-term outlook June 2017

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Report summary

Over the course of the last year 19 GW of new renewables have been added to the grid along with 9.6 GW of new gas capacity. Regionally most of the new wind to come online in the last year has been sited in ERCOT SPP and MISO while most of the new solar has been sited in the WECC and the Southeast. In terms of output while total generation looks to be less than 2016 in July August looks to improve on year over year gains in power demand. Given the increasing renewable build over the last year a particularly strong hydro season and higher prices for natural gas this summer versus last generation from gas is expected to decline relative to last summer. Coal picks up some of this market share although is limited by the increasing renewable penetration as well. Still relative to our previous outlook lower natural gas prices overall bring prices down in many markets on average while heat rates move up on the overall higher share of natural gas generation through 2018.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    201706 STO Base Case Delivered Fuel Prices Nominal Northeast 6 30 2017.xlsx

    XLSX 115.76 KB

  • Document

    201706 STO Base Case Delivered Fuel Prices Real Northeast 6 30 2017.xlsx

    XLSX 115.83 KB

  • Document

    201706 STO Base Case Load Forecast Northeast 6 30 2017.xlsx

    XLSX 2.53 MB

  • Document

    201706 STO Base Case Prices Sparks IHR Darks Nominal Northeast 6 30 2017.xlsx

    XLSX 906.03 KB

  • Document

    201706 STO Base Case Prices Sparks IHR Darks Real Northeast 6 30 2017.xlsx

    XLSX 2.61 MB

  • Document

    201706 STO Base Case Short Term Fundamentals Northeast 6 30 2017.xlsx

    XLSX 251.98 KB

  • Document

    Limited summer growth: Northeast power & renewables short-term outlook June 2017

    PDF 346.63 KB

  • Document

    Limited summer growth: Northeast power & renewables short-term outlook June 2017

    ZIP 6.17 MB

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Fundamentals
  • Generation balances and prices
  • Scenario Overview

Tables and charts

This report includes 5 images and tables including:

Images

  • Figure 1: Changes in Eastern power market fundamentals (Relative to April 2017 STO)
  • Figure 2: Relative changes in Eastern markets’ power price metrics (Relative to April 2017 STO)
  • Figure 3: Changes in WECC power market fundamentals (Relative to April 2017 STO)
  • Figure 4: Relative changes in WECC markets’ power price metrics (Relative to April 2017 STO)

Tables

  • Figure 5: North American power generation balances and fuel prices

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