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Malaysia power and renewable markets long-term outlook 2016

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09 June 2016

Malaysia power and renewable markets long-term outlook 2016

Report summary

A key theme on the ground in Malaysia is gas market liberalisation. The Energy Commission (EC) hopes to implement third party access (TPA) by Q3 2016, opening access to gas infrastructure and pipelines. The regulated gas price to the power sector is already undergoing stepped increase of RM1.5 every six months since 2014. These pricing reforms will have direct impact on the power tariffs regulated via cost pass through mechanism since 2014. The EC is doing their due diligence to analyse the impact of gas price reform on power tariffs. The future fuel mix in Malaysia will be dictated to a great extent by the government's aspirations for affordable prices and their commitment to reduce carbon footprint.

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
    • Market Overview
    • Energy commission to announce large scale solar projects this year
    • China General Nuclear Power is progressing with power projects
    • The new gas contract in Sarawak is in line with capacity requirement by 2019
    • Environmental policy and renewables
    • Data summary
  • Economic outlook
    • In this section
    • Policy drivers
    • Fuel mix
    • Renewables
    • Pricing
    • Generation
    • Transmission
    • Distribution and retail
    • Policy
      • Feed-In-Tariffs
    • Renewables
    • Capacity and reserve margin
      • Available capacity and reserve margin
        • Peninsular Malaysia
        • Sarawak
        • Sabah
    • In this section
    • Short run marginal cost analysis – Peninsular Malaysia
  • Infrastructure
    • Power demand
      • Power sales/GDP growth and electricity intensity factor
    • In this section
    • Peninsular Malaysia
    • East Malaysia
    • Peninsular Malaysia
    • East Malaysia
      • Sarawak
      • Sabah
      • Transmission utilisation across regions
        • Thailand link:
        • Singapore link:
        • West Kalimantan link:
      • Captive power
        • Captive power demand by region
        • Current captive capacity
    • In this section
    • GDP sensitivity on gas demand (Peninsular Malaysia)
    • Coal sensitivity on gas demand (Peninsular Malaysia)

Tables and charts

This report includes 43 images and tables including:

  • GDP forecast - Malaysia
  • Malaysia power available capacity
  • Malaysia power market balance
  • Malaysia gas demand by sector
  • Key changes to analysis from H2 2015 publication
  • Malaysia's energy policy and regulatory structure
  • Major energy legislation
  • Policy and regulation: Image 2
  • Capacity: renewables vs non-renewables
  • Environmental policy and renewables: Image 2
  • Capacity: renewables by fuel
  • Generation: renewables by fuel
  • Environmental policy and renewables: Image 5
  • Emissions in the power sector
  • Contribution of gas and coal in the power sector
  • Breakeven cost (LRMC) based on technology (2020 prices)
  • New plant economics by technology (LRMC)
  • Peninsular Malaysia 2020 merit order
  • Peninsular Malaysia 2030 merit order
  • Peninsular Malaysia grid generation by fuel
  • East Malaysia grid generation by fuel
  • Peninsular Malaysia annual capacity factor by plant type (% utilisation)
  • Sarawak annual capacity factor (% utilisation)
  • Sabah annual capacity factor (% utilisation)
  • Peninsular Malaysia electricity prices
  • Peninsular Malaysia’s average electricity prices
  • Peninsular Malaysia average annual short term generation costs by system and plant type
  • Average end-user power breakeven cost (Real 2015)
  • GDP growth assumptions for high and low case
  • Power demand sensitivity on gas
  • Coal growth assumptions for high and low case
  • Coal demand sensitivity on gas in the power sector
  • Environmental policy and renewables: Table 1
  • Power sales growth, GDP growth and electricity intensity factor
  • Demand: Image 2
  • Existing and planned capacity
  • Capacity by plant type and peak load
  • Reserve margin by region
  • Available capacity by region
  • Power Export from Peninsular to Thailand, Singapore
  • Power Export from Sarawak to West Kalimantan
  • Malaysia captive power sales by region
  • Peninsular Malaysia captive power by plant type (2014)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Malaysia Power Data.xls

    XLS 1.15 MB

  • Document

    Malaysia power and renewable markets long-term outlook 2016

    PDF 887.21 KB

  • Document

    Malaysia power and renewable markets long-term outlook 2016

    ZIP 1.14 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 108.97 KB

  • Document

    Economic outlook

    PDF 60.57 KB

  • Document

    Policy and regulation

    PDF 205.93 KB

  • Document

    Environmental policy and renewables

    PDF 119.77 KB

  • Document

    Supply

    PDF 118.61 KB

  • Document

    Costs

    PDF 176.40 KB

  • Document

    Infrastructure

    PDF 355.47 KB

  • Document

    Demand

    PDF 98.55 KB

  • Document

    Supply-demand balances

    PDF 149.04 KB

  • Document

    Prices

    PDF 96.27 KB

  • Document

    Risks and uncertainties

    PDF 84.23 KB

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