Commodity market report
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31 Pages

Malaysia power markets long-term outlook H2 2013


Malaysia power markets long-term outlook H2 2013

Report summary

To meet Peninsular Malaysia's steady demand growth of close to 4% per annum, over 7000 MW of capacity has already been announced for start-up by 2020. The Energy Commission has turned towards coal as the fuel of choice in the power sector in the medium term, with 5000 MW of the new projects set to be coal-fired. Nonetheless, Wood Mackenzie expects the Energy Commission will still take a balanced approach on fuel policy and we forecast gas to still play a significant role in the power sector.

What's included?

This report includes 4 file(s)

  • Malaysia power markets long-term outlook H2 2013 PDF - 709.00 KB 31 Pages, 8 Tables, 32 Figures
  • Storyboard Malaysia gas and power markets long-term outlook H2 2013.pdf PDF - 688.76 KB
  • Appendix - Malaysia power markets long-term outlook H2 2013.pdf PDF - 145.87 KB
  • Malaysia Power Data.xls XLS - 878.59 KB

Description

The power sector is rapidly transitioning to a cleaner generation mix supported by technological and regulatory changes. Regional markets and structures are adjusting to these new realities with implications on fuel demand, commodity pricing and asset values.

This Power Markets Long Term Outlook report provides a detailed analysis of supply, demand and price fundamentals, as well as the regulatory and market issues affecting regional power markets.

Use this report to examine key issues driving regulatory and economic trends and identify future growth opportunities in regional power markets.

Wood Mackenzie's detailed analysis and reliable market forecasts give you a strong foundation for your investment decisions and corporate planning. Our experienced power research analysts use high-quality proprietary gas, coal and oil markets research to help you unlock power market fundamentals and identify future growth opportunities.

  • Executive summary
    • Additional projects required before 2020 in Peninsular Malaysia
    • New-build tenders
    • Fuel cost pass through mechanism next year
    • Data summary
  • Economic outlook
  • Policy and regulation
    • In this section
    • Policy drivers
    • Competition
    • Fuel mix
    • Renewables
    • Pricing
    • Generation
    • Transmission
    • Distribution and retail
  • Supply
    • In this section
    • Available capacity and reserve margin
      • Peninsular Malaysia
      • Sarawak
      • Sabah
  • Costs
    • In this section
    • Sensitivity on gas breakeven prices by technology
  • Infrastructure
    • In this section
    • Power infrastructure - current
      • Thailand link
      • Singapore link
    • Power infrastructure - map
    • Power infrastructure – planned and possible
      • Sumatra to Peninsular Malaysia
      • Peninsular Malaysia to Singapore
      • Losses and Efficiency gains
      • East Malaysia power transmission infrastructure
        • Power infrastructure – current
          • Sarawak
          • Sabah
        • Power infrastructure - map
        • Power infrastructure – planned and possible
          • Sarawak
          • Sabah
          • Sarawak to West Kalimantan
          • Sarawak to Brunei
  • Demand
    • In this section
    • Power sales/GDP growth and electricity intensity factor
  • Supply-demand balances
    • In this section
    • Peninsular Malaysia
    • East Malaysia
    • Peninsular Malaysia
    • East Malaysia
      • Sarawak
      • Sabah
      • Transmission utilisation across regions
        • Thailand link:
        • Singapore link:
        • West Kalimantan link:
      • Captive power
        • Captive power demand by region
        • Current captive capacity
  • Prices
    • In this section
  • Risks and uncertainties
    • GDP sensitivity on gas demand (Peninsular Malaysia)
    • Coal sensitivity on gas demand (Peninsular Malaysia)

In this report there are 40 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Malaysia power available capacity
    • Malaysia power market balance
    • Malaysia gas demand by sector
    • Key changes to analysis from H1 2013 publication
  • Economic outlook
    • GDP forecast - Malaysia
    • Economic indicators (2000 - 2030)
  • Policy and regulation
    • Key offices
    • Major energy legislation
    • Policy and regulation: Image 1
  • Supply
    • Malaysia: existing and planned capacity
    • Malaysia: capacity by plant type and peak load
    • Reserve margin by region
    • Available capacity by region
  • Costs
    • Breakeven cost (LRMC) based on technology (2020 prices)
    • New plant economics by technology (LRMC)
    • Screening curve with gas at US$8.6mmbtu
    • Screening curve with gas at US$9.07/mmbtu
    • Peninsular Malaysia 2015 merit order
    • Peninsular Malaysia 2025 merit order
  • Infrastructure
    • Peninsular Malaysia power infrastructure
    • Sabah and Sarawak power infrastructure
  • Demand
    • Power sales growth, GDP growth and electricity intensity factor
    • Demand: Image 2
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Peninsular Malaysia grid generation by fuel
    • East Malaysia grid generation by fuel
    • Peninsular Malaysia annual capacity factor by plant type (% utilisation)
    • Sarawak annual capacity factor (% utilisation)
    • Sabah annual capacity factor (% utilisation)
    • Power Export from Peninsular to Thailand, Singapore
    • Power Export from Sarawak to West Kalimantan
    • Malaysia captive power sales by region
    • Peninsular Malaysia captive power by plant type (2013)
  • Prices
    • Peninsular Malaysia electricity prices
    • Peninsular Malaysia’s average electricity prices
    • Peninsular Malaysia average annual short term generation costs by system and plant type
    • Average end-user power breakeven cost
  • Risks and uncertainties
    • GDP growth assumptions for high and low case
    • Power demand sensitivity on gas
    • Coal growth assumptions for high and low case
    • Coal demand sensitivity on gas in the power sector
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