Commodity Market Report
Mexico gas, power and renewables strategic planning outlook 2024
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
In 2024, gas-to-power demand rose considerably, averaging 67% of the total supply stack year-to-date. Poor hydro reservoir levels, increased energy loads, and adverse weather conditions have dramatically strained the power system, causing reserve margins to fall below 3%. As a result, the role of transmission and energy storage will deepen in the upcoming years to enable renewables development while ensuring grid reliability. In the short term, with reduced power capacity additions, gas-fired generation will maintain its market share in the coming years, driving gas burns to new heights and peaking at 4.7 bcfd in 2025. With growing domestic gas demand, albeit at a slower pace than our investment horizon outlook, and the exclusion of Lakach, which reduces non-associated indigenous output by an average of 0.2 bcfd between 2024 and 2033, alongside increased LNG export capacity targeting Mexico’s western coast, US piped gas is expected to uptick considerably, nearly doubling by 2050.
Table of contents
- The prolonged economic recovery from Covid-19 has taken its toll
- US piped gas is set to increase its market share significantly
- Economic growth, rising temperatures and extreme weather events put further pressure on energy loads.
- Following the 2024 presidential elections, the next administration must shift its strategy to accelerate investments in emissions-free power generation.
- Increase in indigenous supply offset by LNG feedgas
- Slower economic recovery to diminish gas demand
- Gas combined-cyles plants maintain their role as the key dispatchable source
- Mexico’s clean energy goals will not be achieved until mid 2030s
Tables and charts
This report includes 1 images and tables including:
- Mexico energy market at a glance
What's included
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