Commodity market report
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8 Pages

Midwest power markets short-term outlook April 2016


Midwest power markets short-term outlook April 2016

Report summary

Relative to last year, prices for wholesale power in April failed to make much progress, particularly across the middle part of the country, as renewable capacity continues to build out. In particular, wind power is now driving prices in ERCOT negative more often. Still, this forecast does see additional upside for prices from where we are now. Given higher prices, natural gas generators are hit the hardest in ERCOT, PJM, and MISO, with Northeast spark spreads the most minimally impacted.  

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Midwest power markets short-term outlook April 2016 PDF - 360.69 KB 8 Pages, 1 Tables, 4 Figures
  • NAPS STO STV Midwest 4 29 2016.xls XLS - 26.39 MB

Description

The power sector is rapidly transitioning to a cleaner generation mix supported by technological and regulatory changes. Regional markets and structures are adjusting to these new realities with implications on fuel demand, commodity pricing and asset values.

This Power Markets Short Term Outlook report provides a detailed analysis of supply, demand and price fundamentals, as well as the regulatory and market issues affecting regional power markets.

Use this report to examine key issues driving regulatory and economic trends and identify future growth opportunities in regional power markets.

Wood Mackenzie's detailed analysis and reliable market forecasts give you a strong foundation for your investment decisions and corporate planning. Our experienced power research analysts use high-quality proprietary gas, coal and oil markets research to help you unlock power market fundamentals and identify future growth opportunities.

  • Executive summary
  • Fundamentals
    • Natural gas prices look to move markedly higher in 2017 on stalled drilling recovery
      • US Rig count continues to fall
      • Coal markets look to respond in kind in 2017
  • Generation balances and prices
    • Supply and demand factors provide relief to the fundamental outlook in this forecast
      • Figure 1: Changes in Eastern power market fundamentals (Relative to February 2016 STO)
      • Year on year growth in regional demand differentiated by industrial losses
      • Overall power demand is up year-on-year for summer due to below-normal weather in 2015
      • New renewable capacity online as coal continues to be retired
      • Coal generation balances see relief over the forecast
    • Unexpected drop in wind production in April shows system price sensitivity to output
      • Prices move higher over the forecast period on higher natural gas and coal prices
    • WECC
  • Scenario Overview

In this report there are 5 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
  • Fundamentals
  • Generation balances and prices
    • Generation balances and prices: Image 1
    • Figure 2: Relative changes in Eastern markets’ power price metrics (Relative to February 2016 STO)
    • Figure 3: Changes in WECC power market fundamentals (Relative to February 2016 STO)
    • Figure 4: Relative changes in WECC markets’ power price metrics (Relative to February 2016 STO)
  • Scenario Overview
    • Figure 6: North American power generation balances and fuel prices
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